Why the debate between Trump and Biden is the most significant in 64 years… and how it could be the most watched in history

In a race that Joe Biden and Donald Trump are each describing in historic terms, both are banking that tonight’s presidential debate could prompt Americans to pay more attention and shift the narrow group of swing voters who hold sway.

A poor performance from either could reset the race.

“This week brings us potentially one of the most consequential debates since Mr. Kennedy and Richard Nixon,” wrote longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz, referring to the landmark 1960 debate that many historians believe gave Kennedy a critical boost in the first debate of modern television. era.

The debate pits the incumbent president back onstage with the fierce rival who skipped his inauguration and used their final televised meeting to go after his son. Trump warns that “if we don’t win this election, we won’t have a country anymore” as he faces three criminal trials in addition to the one that led to a historic conviction this spring.

Wars in Europe and the Middle East keep the US and allies on edge, and Americans continue to raise concerns about the economy and immigration and say the country is on the wrong track, giving moderators the power to shape the terrain.

It marks a seminal moment in an election that both Biden and Trump describe in epic language – Biden calling it the most important “of our lifetime” and Trump calling it “the most important election in the history of our country.”

“Expectations are already high for Mr. Trump, who challenged Mr. Biden to debate at any time and in any place of his choosing. “It is entirely possible that Mr. Trump will regret issuing such a public challenge, and Mr. Biden may come to regret accepting the offer,” he said. added in an opinion piece.

The Trump and Biden campaigns negotiated the ground rules after trading public challenges, with the Biden camp seeking a chance to reset the race earlier than the traditional fall debates and Trump’s campaign seizing the opportunity to get back on stage come up with the target of Trump’s attacks.

(The two men last shared the stage during a furious clash in Nashville, where Trump accused Biden of corruption and referred to Hunter Biden and the “laptop from hell.”)

In an age of a fractured media landscape, millions of Americans will watch the event in real time tonight at 9 p.m. on CNN and other networks that carry the feed.

About 40 percent say they are likely to watch and listen to at least some of it. About the same number say they will watch clips afterwards.

These recordings will be all but inevitable for media consumers as television, cable and online channels cut up the memorable moments and key barbs and slights.

But party members are more likely to participate than independents — a signal that even a candidate who bungles his performance has a chance to improve.

The first Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960 drew 65 million viewers. It was the first general election debate to be televised

As president, Donald Trump repeatedly interrupted Joe Biden during their 2020 debates. The two candidates have exchanged attacks ahead of the Atlanta debate

About say six in ten it is “extremely” or “very likely” that they will see the blow, indicating that tens of millions will see what happens.

Biden may have had plans to eviscerate Trump over the airwaves throughout the summer and fall. But Trump managed to erase Biden’s fundraising advantage, propelled by his criminal trial in Manhattan, making earned media events like the debates even more important.

Although a second debate is scheduled for September, Trump has threatened to walk away from debates in the past and has skipped the second scheduled debate in 2020. If either candidate declines, the battle in Atlanta will be the only chance for voters to evaluate the candidates side by side.

Biden indicated with his schedule how much he is focused on the deployment. He headed to Camp David for a week of debate sessions after resting at his beach house in Delaware.

Although he has received daily briefings on national security and events as they unfolded, the measure included a suspension of his public events. The White House didn’t even hold daily news conferences in his absence — as top advisers helped prepare the president.

Even Trump, who avoids formal exercise sessions, kept a relatively low profile. He held a few fundraising rallies and made his most damning statements at a campaign rally on Saturday evening. There he also discussed the water pressure and other annoyances in detail.

Each event is critical in a close race, and this year’s election counts as one at this stage.

But ‘the presidential election is not a mess’ concluded pollster Nate Silver in a post unveiling his new election model on Wednesday. That’s because even though national polls show a virtual tie, Trump has an advantage in the electoral college, and swing state polls show Trump leading Biden where necessary.

Each candidate has their own challenges. With focus groups showing that many voters were turned off by his repeated interruptions of Biden in 2020, Trump is under pressure to show a degree of restraint, though his strength lies in trying to dominate opponents and level accusations that emphasize their negative sides.

Biden’s advisers know he must provide coherent answers and avoid a signature gaffe after being repeatedly mocked by Trump for stumbles and video clips that the White House labels “cheap fakes.”

He could take some advice from former Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump adviser whose wife Callista Gingrich was Trump’s ambassador to the Vatican.

“If I were Biden, I would stay away from the age issue and just say, ‘Look, I was wise enough not to try to overthrow the American government,’” Gingrich said. NBC. “Go through a list of five things in a row and say, ‘I’d rather have my age with wisdom than your total lack of seriousness.'”

Biden has one data point in his corner: low expectations, fueled in part by Trump’s merciless attacks on his health and mental acuity.

Nearly half of registered voters think President Joe Biden will fail in the debate, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll. That includes 24 percent who think the president will do “not very well,” and a quarter who think he will do “not well at all.”