GOP hopeful could be first Republican since Reagan to take deep-blue Empire State as his popularity surges among black and Hispanic voters

It is increasingly likely that former President Trump will become the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to win New York.

According to a recent poll from Emerson College, President Biden leads Trump by just seven points in the famously liberal Empire State — a slim margin that leaves Trump within striking distance.

In New York, conditions are favorable for the Republican Party. There has been a groundswell of support for Trump following his conviction in the hush-money trial, which many New Yorkers, including moderates and some liberals, have seen as the weaponization of justice.

A Dailymail.com poll conducted after his conviction showed a six-point increase in Trump’s approval rating.

Trump, a native New Yorker himself, has also boosted his chances in the deeply Democratic state by drawing inspiration from Reagan’s campaign playbook.

The former president would be wise to do so, because the America of the 1980 presidential election bears eerie similarities to the America of today.

In 1980, Reagan ran against incumbent Jimmy Carter, who was seen as weak and feeble by many Americans.

At the time, the country was dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis, an extremely precarious situation involving approximately fifty American hostages.

The Soviets had also invaded Afghanistan, a move that hurt Carter, who had recently declared that Afghanistan was not within America’s defensive perimeter.

Like 2024, 1980 was a year of enormous international unrest, and many saw that unrest as the result of Carter’s weak policies.

Similarly, many Americans argue that Putin got the courage to invade Ukraine because of Biden’s soft attitude toward Ukraine.

As writer Craig Shirley noted in a Fox in an op-ed: “Several years ago, Biden foolishly said that Ukraine was not within America’s defensive perimeter.”

Shirley further noted that Biden’s statement “gave carte blanche to President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.”

And in 1980, America suffered from the dreaded stagflation, a period of economic turmoil that combined high inflation and high unemployment.

Although May’s jobs report paints a rosy picture of the country’s employment situation, inflation remains high and a critical issue for many voters.

The final parallel between 1980 and 2024 is the presence of a wildcard candidate on the ballot, who could potentially dilute the Democrats’ votes.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a moderate candidate and has little chance of winning the election, but could ultimately choose his Republican rival.

John Anderson, a liberal Republican from Illinois, ran as a third-party candidate. After the election, pollsters confirmed that Anderson cost both Carter and Reagan votes.

However, Shirley wrote that Anderson “was able to run for office on the Liberal Party Line in 1980, denying Carter these votes.”

Shirley continued, “While Anderson’s presence at the vote did not cost Carter any individual states, it may have cost him New York.”

Reagan was able to exploit these circumstances to his advantage.

The weekend before the 1980 election, Reagan visited the South Bronx, where he wanted to highlight the failures of the Carter administration and secure the votes of disaffected Americans.

During his appearance in the South Bronx, Reagan was surrounded by a belligerent audience.

The crowd heckled him, and Reagan finally responded, “This is an example of how the federal government can fail.”

But the campaign halt was not the disaster it initially seemed.

Shirley wrote: ‘But the incident was not an excess. Reagan showed compassion for the more moderate, hesitant voters and scored a lot of points as a result.’

In late May, Trump made a similar move and visited the South Bronx, where he addressed a diverse crowd of people in an effort to sway minority voters.

During his visit, Trump criticized Biden’s record and presented himself as the better president for black and Hispanic voters.

At one point during the meeting, the crowd began chanting “build the wall.”

Trump has also touted himself as a low-profile candidate who will tackle crime, an image that could further help him with New York voters.

In 2022, Republican Lee Zeldin made an impressive bid for the governorship of New York.

Zeldin ran on an anti-crime platform against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul.

Although the Republican did not win, he only lost by 6.4 percentage points, marking a major failure for the Democrats.

In 2018, by contrast, Cuomo won by a margin of 23.4 percentage points.

Zeldin’s relative success is further evidence that Trump has a chance to win the state.

Trump, a New York native, has tried to leverage his background in the state with local voters. He played up his New York roots at his rally in the Bronx.

“If a New Yorker can’t save this country,” he said. ‘No one can.’