Trump loved Daily Mail’s poll showing a post-verdict popularity surge – but now our expert JAMES JOHNSON reveals the survey secrets that threaten to change everything
It’s no wonder he is known as Telfon Don.
Trump praised the latest DailyMail.com poll during a news conference on Friday in the wake of his felony conviction, saying it is proof that the American people are rallying to his side.
The survey, conducted Thursday evening after the verdict was announced, found that positive views of the ex-president among the electorate as a whole had increased by six percentage points.
He is now viewed more favorably by almost every voting bloc β except Democrats β than before the Manhattan jury’s decision.
However, the public remains evenly divided in their opinion of the former president, with 49 percent having a positive perception and 48 percent having a negative one.
This snapshot of voters also sheds new light on a trend The Mail has been following over the past year: that as the number of charges and now convictions against Trump has increased, so has his public support.
We dug into the details of our polls, focus groups and field research to determine why.
While former President Trump praised the DailyMail poll suggesting Americans are undeterred by his conviction, a polling expert reveals why it may not translate to the ballot box
INDEPENDENTS STRIKE FOR TRUMP
Last August, I spoke to a group of independent voters in Georgia when Fulton County officials made Trump’s booking photo public.
The now infamous mugshot was taken after the ex-president surrendered to authorities on charges of allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
At the sight of the image, heads shook and frowns were made.
But instead of expressing disapproval of Trump’s alleged criminality, the focus group believed the state had gone too far. They saw a political motivation behind the persecution.
Since that day, Mail polls have shown that Trump’s positive approval rating among independents has risen from four percentage points behind Biden to three points ahead of the incumbent president.
That’s not what many experts predicted of independent-minded voters, who are often college-educated suburbanites and averse to political drama.
This week’s new survey showed an additional four percentage point swing toward a more positive view of Trump among these independents.
Perhaps a guilty verdict in one of the other pending cases against the 45th president would have affected these voters in a different way: election collusion and mishandling of classified documents are viewed much more seriously.
But it appears that independents largely don’t think the hush money lawsuit was brought for the right motives, or that Trump’s actions were troubling enough to bring charges.
With that information at hand, it’s not surprising that the verdict led 20 percent of independents to say they felt more positively about Trump β and only 16 percent more negatively.
And there was more good news for the Republican candidate in this surveyβ¦
JL Partners surveyed 403 likely voters immediately after Thursday’s guilty verdict to assess its impact on the November election. The results suggest a bump for Trump
MAGA WORLD RALLIES
The impulse to side with Trump was, unsurprisingly, most pronounced among his base.
In our survey, 36 percent of Trump 2020 voters said his felony conviction made them feel more positive about him.
Fifty-four percent said the jury’s decision had no impact on their feelings. And six percent said the guilty verdict made them feel more negative.
Voters aged 65 and older were largely unmoved by the verdict. Only 11 percent came away with a more negative assessment. Nearly seven in 10 seniors said their opinions β positive or negative β had not changed.
Those results would be consistent with feedback I received when I was in snowy Iowa in January as the state prepared for its first national caucus.
I spoke with Rocky, a 69-year-old registered Republican, who told me that early in the Republican presidential race he was most interested in supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a potential candidate. But when the charges against Trump began to drop in early 2023, Rocky said, his final choice became clear.
Trump is a “fighter” fighting a corrupt state, he said. According to Rocky, Trump deserved his support.
The overwhelmingly positive response to the judgment among the party faithful indicates that Trump remains on course to maintain and even expand the high level of enthusiasm among his core base.
Never-Trump GOP voters are a different storyβ¦
Trump’s opponents celebrated the outcome outside the courthouse
GOP OLD Guard Disturbed β But For How Long?
The Mail’s poll shows that Trump still faces a challenge when it comes to mobilizing a significant group of Republicans.
One in ten GOPers said they had a more negative image of Trump after the verdict. These people fall heavily within the moderate conservative camp.
They’ve often backed Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis in the primaries, but these are the remnants of the party’s old guard: They tend to be older, wealthier, college-educated and with business backgrounds.
In the pithy words of a North Carolina retiree, βFor Republicans like me, it’s all very embarrassing. It’s like finding out your sister is a prostitute.’
But will these Republicans really continue this complaint into November?
Both Haley and DeSantis β despite their sometimes brutal clashes with Trump β have now officially supported him.
The price of lower taxes β with Trump’s tax cuts set to expire in 2025 and more conservative appointments to the Supreme Court β might just convince these moderates to join in.
Biden’s base is a different story…
Following the conviction of his 2024 election rival, President Biden condemned Trump’s response, saying it is “irresponsible for anyone to say this is rigged just because they don’t like the verdict.”
Democrats outraged but unmoved
President Biden’s typical base voter hates Donald Trump.
When asked to describe their reaction to the verdict, this group’s top emotional response was “happy” and the most common word to describe their rationale was that Trump is a “criminal.”
But that’s how a large majority of Democrats have felt for a long time. When The Mail asked Democrats last year to summarize their view of Trump in one word, they also said “criminal.”
Fifty-five percent said their negative views of Trump were unchanged by this week’s verdict. Only two in 10 Dems told us they felt more negative about him now.
Core elements of the party’s base also remained unaffected.
Two in 10 young voters β aged 18 to 29 β said their negative views of Trump had not changed. Nineteen percent felt more negative about him.
What’s also worrying for Democrats is that Biden’s base is not only unenthusiastic, but fractured.
In general, young voters are angry with Biden for his handling of the war in Gaza. Our March poll found that the president’s popularity has fallen 20 percentage points among women aged 18 to 29 since October 7.
Notably, 35 percent of black voters in this week’s survey said their positive perception of Trump actually increased, while 19 percent turned sour on him.
Black Americans, who are so crucial to Biden’s re-election, are tending to vote for independent candidate RFK Jr, or not vote at all, in numbers that are very dangerous for Biden.
Biden is also expected to retain only 73 percent of his voting base in 2020, compared to Trump’s 86 percent.
If the president’s campaign thought the verdict would energize and unite traditional voters, our research suggests they should think again.
The reason for the apathy of Biden’s base is negative views of the president himself. To change that, Democrats will have to strengthen their candidate instead of simply criticizing the largely known celebrity Donald Trump.
What our polls don’t answer is: What happens if Trump is sent to prison?
Such a seismic moment could further energize the Trump base, or scare off the wavering independents and Never-Trump Republicans once and for all.