South Africa is moving closer to coalition government as the ANC’s vote share falls

Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa’s party, which has ruled South Africa since the advent of democracy 30 years ago, is likely to lose its majority after voters overwhelmingly turned to alternative parties with a coalition government in the just-concluded polls now most likely.

On 29 May, a general election was held in South Africa to elect a new 400-member National Assembly, as well as provincial legislatures in each of the nine provinces.

As vote counting continued over lunch on Friday, the ANC received only 42% of the confirmed 62% of votes cast. The Democratic Alliance was next with 23%.

Analysts had previously predicted that the ANC would reach no more than 42%.

The ANC has been hardest hit by the rise of the Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, formed by former president Jacob Zuma, who was ousted by the ANC following widespread public outrage over his alleged role in enabling massive plunder of state resources.

In Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, once a bastion of the ANC, MK has already collected 44% of the vote, while the ANC has plummeted to 19%.

Despite MK’s success, Zuma has been barred from serving as an MP by the country’s highest judicial institution, the Constitutional Court, due to a previous prison sentence imposed on Zuma for contempt of court.

Insiders said negotiations had already begun with some of the smaller parties as coalitions now appeared to be the only route, with no party likely to secure the 50% plus one needed to be the governing party.

Since the seats in the 400-member National Assembly are a direct reflection of the number of votes, some kind of post-election agreement between the parties to get more than 50 percent of the seats to form a government seems very likely.

At the provincial level, the Democratic Alliance, which has governed the Western Cape province for the past 15 years, looked set to continue its dominance over the next five years after receiving 53% of the vote so far.

In the country’s remaining eight provinces, the ANC is likely to retain a majority only in three provinces of Limpopo (75%), Eastern Cape (66%) and North West (60%). In the Free State it currently has 54% and in Mpumalanga 50%, so there is also a chance of it getting a majority there based on the remaining votes.

The ANC suffered the biggest blow in the economic hub of Gauteng province, where voters gave the party a big thumbs-up with just 35% of the vote so far. The opposition Democratic Alliance got 28%, the Economic Freedom Fighters 12% and MK 10%.

Analysts said most of the MK votes likely came from disgruntled former ANC supporters fed up with corruption within the parties’ ranks and poor service delivery across the country, including massive electricity shortages, water cuts and poor road conditions, even in urban areas areas. areas.

ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane told local media at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) Results Center that the party’s national executive committee would meet later on Friday to review the election results. The ANC is also expected to address the nation on Saturday, when almost all results are expected to be in.

The IEC previously said the final results would likely be announced on Sunday.

The IEC’s earlier optimism that it expected a turnout of 66% of the 26 million registered voters seemed an optimistic projection, as around 56% of voters were reflected in the 62% of results confirmed so far.

Throughout South Africa’s 30-year democratic history since the ANC’s victory in the 1994 elections, which officially marked the end of apartheid and ushered in Nelson Mandela as the country’s first black president, the party has had an undisputed majority retained. The country’s continued dominance in politics marks a major milestone for Africa’s most advanced economy, making any potential dip below 50% a momentous shift.

First print: May 31, 2024 | 8:03 PM IST