The presidential election has just caught fire: ANDREW NEIL’s expert instant analysis of Trump’s explosive guilty verdict – and why the real battle for the soul of America begins NOW

Donald Trump becomes the first former president of the United States ever to be convicted of a crime.

A unanimous New York jury found him guilty on all 34 charges of illegally attempting to cover up a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels to quell a sex scandal that he feared would derail his 2016 presidential campaign , just days before America went to the polls.

Paying the hush money was not itself illegal, but the prosecutor successfully argued that it was intended to influence the outcome of the election – a violation of election laws and, prosecutors argued, of the underlying crime.

This is a highly controversial area – especially since the trial heard next to nothing about violations of campaign laws – and therefore the conviction verdict will be appealed immediately. Trump’s lawyers have 30 days to prepare an appeal.

Guilty on 34 counts sounds worse than it is. It only covers the number of installments Trump took to ensure his then-lawyer and sleazy fixer, Michael Cohen, was reimbursed for paying Daniels.

In the current gloomy mood in America, I do not rule out a recovery in Trump’s favor.

The prosecutor convincingly argued that Trump and his people covered up these refunds to hide their true purpose. But tampering with corporate accounts is only a misdemeanor or petty crime under New York law, usually involving just a slap on the wrist.

It linked the payments to a violation of campaign finance law, elevating the case to an actual crime. For many observers the connection is very weak. It was barely discussed during the trial and no one testified that such a connection even existed.

Those salivating at the prospect of Trump now going to jail will have to be patient.

Trump will not be held in custody pending sentencing. He hardly poses a flight risk. It was a white-collar crime involving someone with no prior convictions. A prison sentence would be an unusual outcome.

But this whole trial was unusual.

Sentencing won’t happen until July 11, when Trump faces everything from probation to four years behind bars.

But even if the judge decides on prison time, the guilty verdict will be appealed and Trump will remain free until the appeal process is completed.

This will take a long time – months, if not years – and certainly long enough to give Trump the freedom to campaign for president until Election Day in November.

He will be sentenced four days before the opening of the Republican convention in Milwaukee, where Trump will be crowned the party’s presidential nominee.

By then, President Biden will have regularly called him a “convicted felon.” That could hurt him among independent voters and non-MAGA Republicans. But it won’t make any difference to his core voice.

A unanimous New York jury found him guilty on all 34 charges of illegally attempting to cover up a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels (pictured) to quell a sex scandal that he feared could damage his 2016 presidential campaign would derail. This is a very contentious area.

Shortly after the verdict was handed down, Trump’s campaign website went down, such was the volume of traffic trying to send donations.

Within minutes of the ruling, Trump called the trial a “rigged” trial and a “disgrace.” He will position himself as the victim of a political witch hunt organized by a Democratic Justice Department, a Democratic judge, a Democratic Manhattan prosecutor and a Democratic New York jury.

There have been enough oddities surrounding the prosecution to warrant this.

Judge Juan Merchan, who has sole authority over sentencing, was seen by many (and not just Trump supporters) as overly partisan, regularly overruling the defense’s challenges and almost always siding with the prosecution.

Trump didn’t help matters by regularly attacking him. Nevertheless, Merchan’s statements and the controversial course of the case will form the core of the appeal procedure.

But for now, and until Election Day, the law takes a back seat and politics takes over.

America will have to decide whether Trump, as his opponent and enemies will stigmatize him, is a convicted criminal unfit for any public office, let alone the highest in the land. Or someone who is being seriously screwed over by a politicized legal system that undermines the credibility of the American legal system, making it look more like a banana republic than a mature democracy.

The Biden campaign already says the outcome shows that no one in America is above the law.

Trump people will argue that the complicated legal tricks required to convert a misdemeanor to a misdemeanor were designed specifically for Trump and would never have been deployed against anyone else.

In the current gloomy mood in America, I do not rule out a recovery in Trump’s favor.

Whatever the jury’s decision, he will be excited like never before. So will his supporters. The 2024 presidential election just caught fire.