How soaring house prices in these seven battleground states could swing the battle for the White House

Home prices in swing states could keep Joe Biden in the White House in the upcoming presidential election, a first-of-its-kind study suggests.

The academic study analyzed housing prices and election results at the provincial level for each of the six presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, Realtor.com reported.

Provinces where house prices had risen in the four years leading up to the election were more likely to switch to the incumbent party’s presidential candidate, it found.

In counties where home prices performed worse, Americans were more likely to cast their vote for the challenging candidate – whether Democrat or Republican.

Home prices were most influential in swing counties in the seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the study found.

Home prices have skyrocketed in the US over the past four years. But in four of these swing states, gains are above the national average, suggesting that this trend could favor the incumbent president in November.

The reason behind this trend, according to the study authors, is simple.

For most Americans, their home is their largest asset, meaning they tend to vote for candidates and policies that they believe will increase its value.

“People feel financially wealthier when they have a lot of home equity, compared to having lower home equity,” co-author Alan Tidwell, an associate professor of finance at the University of Alabama, told Realtor.com.

“How financially wealthy they feel really impacts their sense of financial and economic well-being.”

According to Freddie Mac’s home price index, national home prices increased by a whopping 46.4 percent between March 2020 and March 2024.

But in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin, all four-year price gains were greater than 50 percent.

Home prices rose 59.7 percent in Arizona, 58.7 percent in Georgia, 62.4 percent in North Carolina and 50.8 percent in Wisconsin.

In swing counties, voters are most interested in home prices, and real estate is one of the biggest drivers of household wealth, said lead author Eren Cifci, an assistant professor of finance at Austin Peay State University in Tennessee.

“So there could be many other factors that influence the way people vote, but this certainly seems to be one of the factors that influence voters in making their decisions.”

Scroll with your mouse on the map below if you are using a computer or hover your finger on a smartphone to see more details for each state.

In Arizona, home prices have risen 59.7 percent over the past four years

To conduct the study, the authors looked at voting results for every county in the US during the past six presidential elections.

Of those provinces, 77 percent never changed their party preference, it turned out.

But in 641 (or 23 percent) of the provinces, voters switched parties at least once during the survey period, with some switching parties as many as four times.

Within the subset of swing counties, for every 1 percent increase in home values ​​in the four years before the election, the county was 0.36 percent more likely to vote for the incumbent in the next election.

The study also found that every 1 percent increase in house prices made the province 0.19 percent more likely to vote for the incumbent party candidate.

‘The greater the return [on home values]the more likely you are to vote for the incumbent, or vote for the incumbent,” Tidwell told Realtor.com.

“For every percent positive return, there is a percent increase in voting for the incumbent president.”

Scroll with your mouse on the map below if you’re using a computer, or swipe your finger on a smartphone to see more details for each area.

The authors would like to emphasize that many more factors play a role during elections, and that house price developments are not a ‘prediction in itself’.

Republican candidate Donald Trump has launched attacks on the Biden administration over rising prices – as the housing market has emerged as a key issue for voters.

“Under President Biden, home prices have risen nearly 50 percent, making it virtually impossible for millennials to buy their first home and pushing the American Dream further and further out of reach,” Trump supporter Senator Tim Scott wrote on X.

But meanwhile, Biden supporters have pointed out that rising home values ​​are an important source of equity for existing homeowners.