MARK ALMOND: Not since 1914 has a political assassination been attempted at such a delicate time in Europe

Slovakia may seem like a small, rather insignificant country, but it stands at the political crossroads of Europe – a place where age-old conflicts between East and West are laid bare.

So Wednesday’s shooting of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico inevitably sent political shockwaves far from his home country.

Not since 1914 and the shooting of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo has an assassination attempt been attempted at such a delicate time in European politics.

That too had taken place in an apparent backwater – in that case a dark corner of the Balkans.

But the subsequent domino effect and the resulting ultimate horrors of the Great War are easily remembered. Political violence can all too easily lead to destructive chaos.

Slovakia had only been independent since 1993 and became a member of the European Union in 2004 due to its short life. But the confident expectation that Europe would be a ‘continent of peace’ now appears empty – punctured by Russia’s bloody attack on Slovakia’s immediate neighbour, Ukraine.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is transferred to FD Roosevelt University Hospital

Video footage obtained by AFPTV shows security personnel carrying Prime Minister Fico to a vehicle after he was shot in Handlova

It is Slovakia’s position as a frontline state – both for the European Union and for NATO – that makes this small country so suddenly important.

The flow of Western aid through Slovakia has been crucial to Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s aggression.

But weapons from Slovakia’s own arms industry have also been important, and here history plays an unexpected role.

Much of Slovakia’s arsenal goes back to Soviet-era designs – as does Ukraine’s. And that has meant that Slovakian stockpiles of everything from bullets and tank rounds to spare parts for fighter jets have seamlessly matched what the Ukrainians need.

Or did until recently. The return to power of Robert Fico as Slovak Prime Minister last October changed things dramatically – and damaged the unity of the EU and NATO in their support for Ukraine.

Staff transporting Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (C) to a vehicle after he was shot in Handlova on May 15

The prime minister was shot in Handlova, northeast of Bratislava

That’s because Robert Fico, like his political ally Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, is an outspoken critic of Western support for Kiev. Fico ran a pro-Putin, anti-American and anti-EU campaign for his re-election.

And instead of sanctions, he calls on the West to enter into talks with President Putin to end the conflict.

Now Ukraine and its allies fear Fico hopes to push Kiev into a corner – by blocking EU aid and forcing Ukrainians to accept the Kremlin’s demands.

Why has Fico broken ranks with the majority of EU and NATO states? Some people look back on his childhood in Czechoslovakia – the Soviet bloc state to which Slovakia once belonged.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (pictured) described the shooting as a “heinous crime” and said he hoped “courageous” Fico would recover quickly

US President Joe Biden said the US embassy was prepared to assist the government in that regard, according to a White House statement

Security officers took Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico into a car on Wednesday after the shooting

Fico joined the Communist Party in 1986 at the age of 22, just three years before the Soviet-backed regime collapsed.

But like many young and ambitious people forty years ago, he quickly dumped the party and embarked on his own post-communist odyssey, coming up with the idea of ​​a social democratic party called Smer – or ‘Direction’ – 25 years ago. However, public opinion in Slovakia is changing and Fico is a populist.

He has been sensitive to how many of his compatriots fear the spread of the war from Ukraine. They remember the Prague Spring, the Russian invasion in 1968, but see appeasing Putin – not challenging him – as the way forward.

Fico’s mix of securing EU subsidies for Slovakia while opposing the plan to hand out migrants to countries like his has also played well with voters.

Its popularity should not be underestimated.

Only in April did Fico’s choice for president, Peter Pellegrini, defeat the opposition candidate and he will take office next month.

But it is Fico’s love for Putin and China that worries the West most.

Rescue workers take shot and wounded Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico to a hospital in the town of Banska Bystrica, central Slovakia. He is depicted covered with a white sheet

Slovakia is one of the smaller member states of the EU. Usually in Brussels the big boys – France and Germany – get their way.

But small states like Slovakia have a veto on foreign policy, and together with Viktor Orban in Hungary, Fico has formed an ‘Awkward Squad’ – skeptical of Ukraine, relatively friendly towards Russia. Moreover, fears are growing that Russia is trying to destabilize Western societies, as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned on Monday. Sabotage and murder on British soil cannot be ruled out.

The risk of more attacks after the Fico shooting is serious, especially now that Europe appears to be at a fever pitch, as it was in the first decades of the last century.

We are approaching election season across the continent, including the European Parliament polls in the coming months.

Political leaders, from presidents to politicians, will be out and about.

While for a long time there was the risk of flying eggs or even just a few punches, the fear of knives and guns will now haunt campaigning politicians everywhere.

It took only a month after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, for the universal horror of his murder to give way, first to naked international rivalry – and then on July 28 to the catastrophe of the First World War.

Whatever the motives of yesterday’s would-be assassin, the fact that a European government leader could be shot in this way has put every European country – including the West’s great rivals, Russia and China – on edge.

Still just over a century away, the lessons of the Great War scream at us. The risk of wider contamination is very real.