India will experience hotter heatwaves amid preparedness shortfalls, says a study

As summer arrives, India is bracing for the onslaught of heat waves despite having substantial heat action plans in place. A recent study by the World Weather Attribution group reveals significant gaps in preparedness, including underfunded plans, insufficient attention to local context, insufficient targeting of vulnerable groups and a lack of periodic reviews.

The incidents of extreme temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius in April, which affected billions of people across Asia, were intensified and made more likely by human-induced climate change, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists from around the world. Weather attribution group.

“From Gaza to Delhi to Manila, people suffered and died as temperatures soared in Asia in April,” said Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London. “If people continue to burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm and vulnerable people will continue to die,” Otto further said.

The study calls for the expansion of mandatory regulations in addition to existing action plans to address the challenges of climate change.

“Some countries, such as India, have drawn up comprehensive heat action plans. But to protect some of the most vulnerable people, these must be expanded to include mandatory regulations. Workplace interventions for all workers to address heat stress, such as planned rest breaks, fixed working hours and rest-shade-rehydrate (RSH) programs are necessary but have yet to become part of worker protection guidelines in affected regions” , the report said.

According to media reports, more than 13 people died of heatstroke at an outdoor event in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, despite the state not experiencing any heat waves.

While many cities have implemented solutions such as cool roofs, nature-based infrastructure design and building code compliance based on climate risks, there has been limited attention to modernizing and upgrading existing buildings and settlements, with infrastructure shortages (e.g. asbestos roofs), to make them more livable, the study said.

“Heat action plans include measures to deal with heat, such as changing work and school times. While several countries have made substantial progress on such plans, there is an urgent need to scale up and further strengthen them across Asia to cope with rising heat,” said Carolina Pereira Marghidan, climate risk advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Moon Climate Center.

Climate change, caused by the burning of oil, coal and gas, and other human activities such as deforestation, is making heat waves around the world more frequent, longer and hotter, putting millions of people at risk.

According to a report by the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), more than 80 percent of Indians live in districts vulnerable to climate risks. Among these, Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bihar are the most vulnerable states in the country to extreme climate events.

A conservative range of 45 percent to 1.19 percent of India’s GDP in 2050 and 59 percent to 1.17 percent of India’s GDP in 2100 is estimated as the cost of global inaction in mitigating climate change, according to an estimate by CEEW.

The heat is especially difficult for people living in refugee camps and informal housing, as well as for outdoor workers. The heat wave exacerbated the already precarious conditions faced by internally displaced persons, migrants and people in refugee camps and conflict zones in West Asia.

“In Gaza, extreme heat worsened the living conditions of 1.7 million displaced people,” the study said.

“These extreme temperatures are now about 45 times more likely and 0.85 degrees Celsius hotter. These results are consistent with previous studies, in which we found that climate change makes extreme heat events about 30 times more likely and 1 degree Celsius hotter,” the study said.

April brought severe heat waves to Asia, with South and Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and the Philippines breaking records for their warmest days and nights.

India also experienced scorching temperatures of up to 46 degrees Celsius. Across India, April’s extreme heatwave has posed significant risks to millions of people, as more than 50 percent of the workforce is employed in agriculture. The heat also had a major impact on agriculture, causing damage to crops and reduced yields, as well as education, with holidays having to be extended and schools closed in several countries, affecting millions of students.

“While there is evidence that El Niño events increase the probability and intensity of heat waves over India, this does not alter the role of global mean surface temperature (GMST) in making the event warmer than it would have been,” said the study.

As incomes rise and urbanization accelerates, ownership of air conditioning units in India has seen a remarkable rise, making it one of the most favored coping strategies, the study points out.

Heat waves are among the deadliest forms of extreme weather events and although the death toll is often under-reported, hundreds of deaths have already been reported in most affected countries, including Palestine, Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also warned of a severe heat wave in the coming days in Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana where the maximum temperature is likely to reach 44-46 degrees Celsius. This heat wave will probably be at its peak between May 16 and 18.

The IMD has issued a heat wave warning for northwest India from May 16.