Experts warn ‘silver tsunami’ poses threat to the economy as over-65s are set to outnumber children by 2030

The number of seniors will outnumber children for the first time in American history within six years, as experts warn the country is about to face a dramatically aging population.

The ‘silver tsunami’ has already doubled the burden on the working population since 1960, when there were six workers for every person over 65.

And millions are now at risk of having no one to help them as the low-paying care sector is pushed out by higher-paying jobs in a tight labor market.

“An already challenging landscape in the senior care industry is likely to get worse unless action is taken,” said Dr. Kylie Meyer, an assistant professor at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. Newsweek.

“It could be that more older adults will be left without care, or that younger family members will be put under further financial strain to help older relatives.”

Economists have been warning of the consequences of the population time bomb for decades, but the situation has become more dire since the Covid-19 pandemic prompted the ‘Great Retirement’, with another two million people deciding to quit.

Half of the wealth in the US is now held by people born before 1965, a study found last year, helped by decades of rising house prices and declines in relative wages for younger people.

But for those without assets or with complex health needs, the outlook is bleak.

About 20 million people over 55 already need help with daily tasks in order to lead an independent life.

But a study by the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis shows that nearly eight million of them are receiving no help at all.

Actuaries warned last year that the Social Security trust fund is expected to be depleted by 2034, with spending on welfare and Medicare expected to rise from 9.1 percent of U.S. GDP to 11.5 percent in just 12 years.

And America’s changing age profile means that by 2030 there will be only 2.75 working-age people for every dependent-age person, if we include children.

“As the enormous population of baby boomers retires, we are entering a period in which millions of highly experienced, high-performing workers are transitioning from producer to consumer,” said economist Ron Hetrick of market analysis firm Lightcast.

‘A large number of retirees is not in itself a problem; the share of retirees compared to new employees is the problem.

“That’s because when people retire, their demand for goods and services remains high, but now we will have significantly fewer people to provide those goods and services.”

The problem is not limited to the US; most developed countries are struggling with an aging population, including Japan, whose population is expected to shrink by 30 percent by 2070, when four in ten will be over 65 years old.

The situation in South Korea is so grim that Professor David Coleman of the University of Oxford predicted that at the current rate the entire country would be extinct by 2750.

And even China, which recently lost its status as the world’s most populous country to India, is now shrinking at a rate of nearly a million people per year.

And an older population is generally a sicker population, with higher demands on health care and care services.

“Thanks to advances in medical technology, people are living longer than ever before,” says Dr. Gary Small of Hackensack University Medical Center in New Jersey.

‘Unfortunately, our bodies and brains are not designed to function efficiently for the current average life expectancy, so people are living longer, but not necessarily better.

“Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, cancer and countless other age-related diseases lead to disability and dependency, and there are relatively fewer adult children than ever before available to assist with care.

“The economic and emotional burden of these trends are daunting.”

Projections from the US Census Bureau predict that by 2060, one in four Americans will be over 65, and the number of people aged 100 or older will surpass one million by the end of the century.

The percentage of the adult population retiring has risen from 15 percent in 2007 to just under 20 percent, and has increased sharply since 2020, defying Federal Reserve predictions.

“The looming demographic shift that will see older adults outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history poses significant social and economic challenges and opportunities,” said Patrick Mish of social work agency SilverStay.

‘This shift, often referred to as the ‘silver tsunami’, is expected to have profound consequences for multiple facets of society.

‘As the population ages, demand for healthcare will increase significantly, especially those related to age-related conditions such as dementia, arthritis, heart disease and cancer.

‘This will require a significant expansion of healthcare infrastructure and services, including more specialized healthcare facilities and care services.’

But a survey last year by the Pew Research Center found that nearly 20 percent of people over 65 would be employed by 2023, nearly double the number in 1990.

A record 4.1 million Americans will turn 65 this year, with an average of 11,200 per day.

“Peak 65 is a historic moment,” said Cyrus Bamji, chief strategy officer of the Alliance of Lifetime Income.

“The tail end of the baby boom generation is starting to turn 65, and unfortunately, most of them are retiring unprotected, with a safety net full of holes.”