Jeremy Hunt’s seat is under threat as voters prioritize the NHS over tax breaks

In recent weeks, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been on a clear mission.

Under pressure from Rishi Sunak, he and his Treasury officials have been considering their options for pre-election tax cuts, which the Prime Minister is convinced are needed to give the Tories a fighting chance at the upcoming election.

However, had Hunt consulted his own constituents, he might have come to a very different conclusion about what to prioritize on Wednesday.

A recent poll in his new seat of Godalming and Ash, a brick in the ‘blue wall’ now under attack by the Liberal Democrats, suggests Hunt is on course to be the first serving chancellor in modern times to hold his seat loses in the House of Commons.

The Lib Dems are currently on 35% of the vote, the Conservatives on 29% and Labor on 22%, according to a recent Survation poll commissioned by campaign group 38 Degrees. Tactical voting could see the chancellor reach an even more distant second place.

But the findings also suggest that rather than returning to the Tory fold through tax cuts, his own voters are prioritizing the woes of the NHS above all else.

When asked about the issues that determined their election vote, ‘health and the NHS’ came top, followed by the cost of living and the economy in general. Only 4% said taxes were an important election issue.

Among his local constituents, an alarming 59% said close friends or family had experienced difficulty booking a GP appointment and almost half had struggled to book an appointment themselves.

To make this point clear, two-thirds (67%) of those polled said increasing funding for public services such as the NHS would be more important in determining their vote – 25% said tax cuts would be more important.

“Under Jeremy Hunt’s chancellorship, lives in Godalming and Ash have become worse – it’s that simple,” said Matthew McGregor, the chief executive of the 38 Degrees group. “This election is an opportunity for change and all parties must listen: the public want our NHS saved and they want help with the cost of living – they don’t want cheap tax tricks to buy votes and ruin our essential public. Services.”

The findings show that Hunt, ahead of one of the most crucial political weeks of his long career, is caught between three competing and contradictory realities.

The first is the political reality that tax cuts of any kind are so priced in that No. 10 is clear that they must be implemented in some form.

But outside Westminster, the reality of pressure on public services is worrying voters, including the electorate of Hunt’s Godalming.

Then there’s the unwanted economic reality Hunt faces.

But as the Chancellor opts this week to find the money for tax cuts – with Downing Street pushing for a cut in the basic rate of income tax and the Treasury favoring a cheaper national insurance cut – there are now increasing more desperate warnings that these will be based on future government spending commitments that are a complete fantasy.

Hunt, who would likely have around £13bn of headroom under his own budget rules, has tried to find more cash by trimming down already very tight future spending plans – reducing any increases from around 1% per year to 0.75%.

Economists believe it is virtually impossible to achieve such small increases given the pressures facing public services, but the desperation with which tax cuts are being pursued means Hunt may have to adopt such a suspension of disbelief.

David Gauke, former Tory chief secretary at the Treasury, said existing low-spending plans already amounted to “a hospital pass” for the next chancellor.

“No one really believes this will be feasible,” he said. “There are two reasons why Conservatives are trying to differentiate themselves from Labor on the economy. One is that the Conservatives would be more budget conscious, and second, that they would introduce lower taxes. Right now these two attributes are in tension with each other.

“This is probably his last big job and this is probably his last budget. If I were Jeremy Hunt, my priority would be to ensure that his and the Conservatives’ reputation for good economic management is enhanced and not diminished, rather than trying to gamble that a big tax cut would bring about a transformation , which I don’t think is the case. would be.”

There is another pre-election trick that can be played. Hunt’s pre-budget options include plans to steal some of the few revenue-raising ideas Labor has committed to: an overhaul of non-domestic tax status and increasing the windfall tax on energy companies. That would sharpen Labour’s weapons.

But with the right already critical of Hunt and Sunak, there is a very real political danger that such a move will do nothing to help the Prime Minister regain control and authority over an increasingly ungovernable Tory party.

Survation surveyed 507 voters in the new Godalming and Ash constituency from February 16 to 20