Next government WILL NOT reduce NHS waiting lists to pre-Covid levels: bleak forecast from think tank

The next government is unlikely to reduce NHS waiting lists to pre-pandemic levels in one term, a report warns today.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, it will take more than four years to reduce waiting times to 2019 levels – and even longer to wipe them out.

The analysis is a major blow to Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, who has pledged to eliminate waiting times for routine treatments within his first term if he becomes prime minister.

The think tank warns that even under its optimistic scenario, the number of people waiting in December 2027 will be higher than before the pandemic.

Moreover, any attempt to bring them down more quickly would require tax rises, a miraculous increase in NHS productivity or “dazzlingly difficult choices elsewhere”, it adds.

The NHS waiting list in England was 4.6 million in December 2019 and 7.6 million at the end of December last year, the last month for which figures are available.

This was slightly lower than the 7.61 million at the end of November.

The government has blamed strikes by trainee doctors and consultants for hampering efforts to tackle waiting times.

Speaking last October, Labor leader Sir Keir promised that waiting lists would be eliminated during the first term of a government under his rule.

But according to the IFS ‘central scenario’, waiting lists would start to fall ‘consistently but slowly’ from mid-2024 and would still reach 6.5 million in December 2027.

Max Warner, research economist at IFS and author of the report, said: ‘The next government could inherit a falling NHS waiting list for electives in England.

‘But even if the trend points in the right direction, waiting lists will still be much higher than before – and long waiting times are unlikely to disappear any time soon.

‘Even under optimistic assumptions, we estimate that the waiting list in four years will still be higher than at the start of the pandemic, which was itself much higher than the waiting list in the early 2010s.

‘If rapidly reducing waiting lists is a priority, the next government will likely need to both spend extra money on healthcare and find ways to increase NHS productivity.

‘These are not easy solutions: large increases in NHS funding without accompanying tax increases could require some eye-wateringly difficult choices elsewhere, and solving the NHS productivity puzzle could require upfront investment and years of relentless policy focus.’

Mark Franks of the Nuffield Foundation, which part-funded the report, added: ‘We have been witnessing increasing waiting lists in the NHS for more than a decade, driven by factors such as a growing and aging population.

‘More recently, the pandemic has exacerbated this problem by hampering the NHS’s ability to provide healthcare services.

‘If our public health services are to recover, the next government needs a credible and sustainable plan to tackle the NHS’s capacity, funding and productivity challenges.’

Sir Julian Hartley, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said attempts to reduce the waiting list are being “thwarted” by “limited funding in the NHS, the impact of the pandemic, severe workforce shortages and strikes”.

Tim Mitchell, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: ‘The longer patients wait on NHS lists, the greater the risk that their condition will worsen and they will require more complex operations.

The IFS’s prediction that waiting lists are ‘unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels’ by December 2027, even in a ‘best-case scenario’, is deeply worrying.

‘It’s a terrible situation for the patients behind the numbers; fearful of diagnosis and treatment, in avoidable pain, and with their lives put on hold.

‘It couldn’t be clearer now that we need the Government to make a substantial investment in NHS technology and capital projects in next week’s spring budget to have any hope of making a meaningful dent in waiting lists.’

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: ‘We recognize the challenges facing the NHS, and we are making the long-term decisions needed to make our healthcare faster, simpler and fairer, reducing waiting lists and ensuring that people get the care they need. need.

‘Overall NHS waiting lists have fallen for three months in a row, despite winter pressures and industrial action, and we have delivered on our promise to deliver 50 million additional GP appointments months ahead of schedule, while the recent rollout of Pharmacy First will help to deliver 10 million GP appointments per year.

‘We are investing at record levels in the NHS and we have commissioned the first ever NHS Long Term Workforce Plan to train and retain the workforce our healthcare system will need for decades to come.’