NHS waiting lists are falling, but will remain above pre-Covid levels until 2030, says IFS

The waiting list for NHS hospitals will fall “consistently” by the time of the general election but will remain even higher than before Covid until 2030, a new report predicts.

In potentially good news for Rishi Sunak, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the waiting list for operations in England is expected to “start to fall consistently but slowly from mid-2024”, during the months leading up to the election. which is widely expected in November.

However, in sobering news for the Conservatives and Labor, the think tank also said whoever forms the next government will not return the waiting list to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the next parliament, which is likely to last until the end. from 2029.

The time patients have to wait for treatments such as emergency rooms, diagnostic tests and cancer care, as well as elective surgeries – already the worst ever – is also likely to remain frustratingly long.

In January last year, the Prime Minister said “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need faster” was one of five promises he asked voters to judge him on. However, he recently admitted that he had not kept that promise.

The waiting list was 7.2 million when he made the pledge, but by December it had risen to 7.6 million. Sunak blamed strikes by NHS staff since December 2022, which have forced hospitals to reschedule 1.4 million operations and outpatient appointments.

The size of the waiting list, which includes procedures patients are waiting for under the NHS referral programme, has fallen from 7.8 million to 7.6 million in the past three months. This is mainly because hospitals have made determined efforts to clear the backlog, for example by organizing extra operating sessions in the evenings and on weekends.

Many of the 6.5 million patients on the waiting list are awaiting hip or knee replacements or cataract removal to improve their vision.

The waiting list was 4.6 million when Covid hit. But according to IFS calculations, it is on track to remain at 6.5 million by December 2027. If that forecast proves correct, it could mean that delays in access to care will remain a persistent problem for the next administration for most or all of its life. office.

The IFS also says that “the NHS and government have failed to meet the majority of their waiting list and waiting time targets in England since 2010”, when Labor bequeathed the coalition government the shortest waiting times the service has ever achieved.

Five of the six waiting list targets set since 2022 that are intended to reduce long waiting times and increase the number of operations hospitals carry out, including the three Sunak outlined, have either already been missed or are “unlikely” or “very unlikely” that they will be reached on time, the IFS said.

Although the Prime Minister’s promise to eliminate waiting times of more than two years for hospital treatment by July 2022 was “close to being fulfilled”, he has “failed” on both his blanket promise and his promise that no one should have had to wait longer than 18 months by 2022. April last year.

Similarly, NHS England’s promise, made in its 2022 post-Covid recovery plan, that hospitals would carry out 21% more operations next year than before the pandemic “will almost certainly not be delivered”, the IFS said.

“The next government could inherit a falling NHS waiting list for electives in England. But even with a trend pointing in the right direction, waiting lists will still be much higher than they have been – and long waits are unlikely to disappear any time soon,” said Max Warner, research economist at the IFS and co-researcher. author of the report.

Rory Deighton, director of the acute hospital network at the NHS Confederation, said that although the waiting list has fallen slightly, “there is still a huge mountain to climb and… clearing the backlog will take a long time”.

He blamed the size of the waiting list on “years of underinvestment in staff, pay, capital and infrastructure” and said it was already huge before Covid arrived, in comments that echoed Sunak’s repeated attempts to portray the backlog as a result of Covid could be questioned.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said the IFS findings showed: “There is no prospect of patients being seen in time if the Conservatives get another five years. The longer we give the Conservatives, the longer patients will have to wait.”

Labor will reduce the waiting list by ensuring the NHS makes 2 million extra appointments a year in the evenings and weekends, paid for by closing the tax loophole, he added.

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “We recognize the challenges facing the NHS and are making the long-term decisions needed to make our healthcare faster, simpler and fairer, reducing waiting lists and ensuring people get the care they need. .

“Overall NHS waiting lists have fallen for three months in a row, despite winter pressures and industrial action.”