Premier League weekly awards: Bailey shines; United’s Fernandes problem

Player of the week

Aston Villas Leon Bailey was right in the middle of everything that was right and good about his team’s 4-2 win over Nottingham Forest. Bailey finished with a goal and two assists, tormenting the left side of Forest’s defence.

The arrival of Unai Emery has revived a number of Villa players who were left reeling at the end of Steven Gerrard’s tenure, but none more so than the Jamaican winger. “I’ve been working on being more consistent,” Bailey said after the game. He delivered results against Forest. Bailey has mastered dozens of tricks designed to take advantage of his speed and propel him into space.

There is a return to Bailey’s game. He likes to swing in from the touchline in a modern way, but drives to the byline just as comfortably. He has – as the cliché goes – added more end product to his dazzling style. The goals and assists are pouring in. His passing when cutting inside has become more agile. He ranks seventh among wide forwards xGChain this season, a measure of a player’s creative impact. In the real world he has eight goals and seven assists, doubling his output from last season.

Disappointing performance of the week

It has become a well-known pattern for Manchester United: a slight increase in results, some signs of life, followed by an inevitable defeat. A handful of late goals – and some excellent performances from Rasmus Højlund – have rescued United from tepid performances in recent weeks. But they couldn’t escape against Fulham, losing 2-1 thanks to a 97th-minute winner from Alex Iwobi.

Højlund has helped cover up some of United’s shortcomings over the past month. Dig through the numbers, however, and they paint a grim picture:

• They have conceded more shots than any side except Sheffield United this season.

• They have had more shots than Manchester City in February whole season.

• They are 13th in goals per game.

• They scored the eighth fewest goals in open play.

• They have been surpassed in expected goals in open play.

The performance against Fulham was the worst element of the Erik Ten Hag era, packed into 100 minutes. United struggled to create chances in open play until the 90th minute. With injuries to the left side of their back four, there was no balance with or without the ball. When they lost the ball they showed no tenacity to win it back, allowing Fulham to roll through the center of the pitch.

The looseness of United’s attack remains confusing. In an era of programmed moves, United have hit the mark. Everything is done by hand. Nothing is repeatable. And yet that lack of structure has led not to a free-flowing goal-fest – as was the case under Ole Gunnar Solskjær – but to an arrhythmic style that relies on individual players to conjure up a moment of brilliance amid the mud.

There are plenty of culprits, but none worse than the captain Bruno Fernandes.

Fernandes has had a bad year. But he disappeared when United needed him most. His body language was terrible for much of the season. His tactical discipline – which goes back years – is missing.

The turning point on Fernandes is that you can use the antics – the waving of the arm, the sulking, the headless one chasing the ball – because of his impact with the ball at his feet. But that impact has disappeared.

Fernandes’ form since the turn of the year has been dismal. His role has been to provide impetus to United’s staid build-up play, even in the darkest of times. Now his haphazard style undermines any sense of coherence in the final third. If teams intervene, Fernandes will be short-circuited. He approaches everything in a hurry, as if it’s a race to see who can shoot the fastest, rather than a competition to see who can put the ball in the net the most times.

Scan the numbers and a few things stand out: Fernandes takes a tons of low quality recordings; his impact in open play has disintegrated.

Close your eyes and you can see an assist from Kevin De Bruyne. There it is, in crystal clear 4K. It’s probably in the inner right channel, sending a delivery to the center of the box. Run the same test with Bukayo Saka, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Martin Ødegaard, Mohamed Salah, James Ward-Prowse, Pedro Neto or any of the league’s best creatives and you can visualize the where and how. With Fernandes it is murkier. Who in the United forward line does he have natural chemistry with? Whom does he exalt? What is his trademark? More than anything, it’s waving his arms, barking at a referee and… abdicate his defensive responsibilities.

Another side could live with Fernandes’ lack of craft in the final third, but United cannot. Fernandes is supposed to connect the disparate pieces of the team and point them towards an identity.

Ten Hag is running out of time to bring his disjointed team together. According to the expected goals table, United are the 11th best team in the league, which is a fairer reflection of how the side have played this season than their points total. Fernandes alone will not solve United’s attacking problems. But rediscovering his old creative spirit and tuning into the team’s collective defensive frequency would certainly help.

Goal of the week

Arsenal’s goal scoring spree continued in a 4-1 win at home to Newcastle. The team’s second goal came in Through Kai Havertz, summarized the game. Arsenal played with confidence, intensity and ingenuity. Newcastle had no pace and were second in everything:

There is a subtle change of direction from Kai Havertz, which allows him to get behind the defender who is attracted to the ball and helps him time his run to perfection. Sometimes it’s the little things 👌🏼pic.twitter.com/Ri4mwXNcM0

— Harry Symeou (@HarrySymeou) February 25, 2024

That, in microcosm, is Mikel Arteta’s team at the moment. For those keeping score at home, that’s an aggregate score of 25-3 for Arsenal since returning from their winter break. There are no signs of vulnerability. They are solid defensively and deadly going forward. They turned what should have been a tough match against a prickly Newcastle side into a procession.

Barring a visit to Manchester City, Arsenal will be heavy favorites in all eleven remaining league games. To stop City, they may have to win.

Relegation subplot of the week

We need to talk about Project Vincent Kompany. Last season Burnley won the championship with more than 100 points. They spent over £100m on net transfer spend last summer. According to Transfermarkt, they earned an additional £50 million from loan and free-agent deals.

The outcome of the edition: 13 points from 26 games and a goal difference of minus 29, the second worst in the league. And lest you think Kompany and Co went all Forest and imported a new starting XI for the Big Boy League, six of Kompany’s most used squads this season were part of last season’s top squad.

How is that even possible? Someone calls Antoine Reinartz to continue the procedure.

Somehow, as the season has progressed, Burnley have gone backwards. They were beaten 3-0 by Crystal Palace this weekend by a coaching staff with just three days in charge. According to the data suckers, Burnley registered a paltry 0.08 xG, which is about as much as you gathered while reading that sentence. They did not come close to threatening the Palace goal until the 60th minute, partly due to a Josh Brownhill red card in the 34th minute. just as bad as before.

That lack of attacking intent – ​​ten men or not – has been a thorn in the side this season. It shouldn’t be possible for a team to be so bored to attempt to play attractive football. But there is a lack of purpose in Burnley’s game. They just wave the ball around until someone shrugs and burps the ball to the opponent. They are a lot slower when they lose the ball. When they run out of assets, they are fragmented. Kompany’s team plays like a youth travel team where no one keeps score and everyone gets a juice box at the end. It’s not good enough at this level.

Kompany does not want to deny his principles. In some ways that’s admirable. But Burnley would certainly have picked up a few more points and put themselves in a position to stay in the competition if they had dragged more games into the mud like Luton.

Bridging the gap between the Championship and the Premier League is difficult. But Burnley’s plan for this season – building around a young core and playing Guardiola-inspired football – has been a complete failure.

Video of the week

When your season is spiraling, managers and supporters alike ask one thing from players: show a little fight. But that usually means towards the opposition, not against each other. In their 1-0 defeat to Wolves, Sheffield United’s Vinícius Souza and Jack Robinson clashed after Paulo Sarabia had given the home side the lead.

It has long been a true NBAism that high-fives signify a healthy culture can even contribute to victory. Has anyone studied fighting between teammates? “We don’t want to see that every week, but if it takes something like that to get them going, I’m happy,” Chris Wilder said after the game. “That happens at every club across the country three or four times a year.”

If Wilder was looking for a spark, he more or less got it with the fists. Sheffield United are on course to become one of the worst teams in Premier League history, but they are showed more spirit against Wolves than against Brighton last week – and they will feel badly for not being able to score a point.