BUSINESS LIVE: NatWest appoints new boss; Retail sales are rising; Oil prices are rising

Investors are betting on three interest rate cuts in Britain this year after the economy fell into recession.

At the end of a week of crucial economic data, the Bank of England is now expected to cut overall borrowing costs from 5.25 percent to 4.5 percent by Christmas.

NatWest Group has confirmed Paul Thwaite as permanent CEO as the lender posted its highest annual profit since the global financial crisis.

The banking giant’s pre-tax profits rose by a fifth to £6.2 billion in 2023, its best performance since profits of £9.3 billion in 2007 and around £200 million above analyst expectations.

The caravanserai of bosses, buyers, influencers, journalists, models and the rest have descended on the city for London Fashion Week (LFW), which starts today.

This year, some designer shows will take place against a controversial backdrop. As David Bowie said in his song Fashion, this can be a world ‘full of tension and fear’.

The shrinking universe of London-listed real estate investment trusts (REITs) is expected to shrink further in 2024 as the sector struggles with the weight of low assets, weak share prices and high discounts.

Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments:

‘Following the 3.3% collapse in UK retail sales in December, today’s January figure defied expectations.

“Retail sales rose 3.4% despite the country being literally and figuratively flooded after three separate winter storms.

“It should be noted that this data can be extremely volatile and can fluctuate as wildly as a Conservative midterm election majority.

‘Should this trend continue, with brightening economic data coming in better than expected, the economic slowdown is expected to be superficial and short-lived. That is not necessarily good news for hopes for a speedy rate cut.”

Taylor Swift has brought American Football to a new female audience since she started dating a player – and now Charlotte Tilbury wants to open Formula 1 up to young women.

Matt Dalton, partner, risk advisory and consumer sector leader, at Mazars:

“Retail sales surprisingly exceeded expectations and rose at the fastest pace in almost three years. As inflation eased, consumers took to the high street in January and opened their wallets, across all categories except clothing.

‘The release of the figures is very positive for the future UK economy, and is consistent with our view that a UK recession will not necessarily deepen or last for long.

“However, slower online retail sales are a cause for concern, and we expect this category to pick up as well before we can talk about any kind of sustainable bullish consumer trend.”

UK retail sales grew at the fastest pace in almost three years in January, beating expectations, new ONS data shows.

According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales rose 3.4 percent per month in January, compared with forecasts of a 1.5 percent increase. The increase was the largest since April 2021.

Sterling was last flat at $1.259 that day, having traded around $1.25815 prior to the data. Against the euro, the pound was also unchanged on the day at 85.46 pence.