Historian who has predicted every election correctly since 1984 says BIDEN is leading race for the White House – but there is enough issues that the pendulum could swing in Trump’s favor
A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that Joe Biden currently has a lead over Donald Trump – but the race remains open.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system he calls “13 keys” and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.
He says the technique allows him to “predict the outcome of the popular vote based solely on historical factors and not on polls, tactics or campaign events about candidate preference.”
Lichtman said Market overview he believed Biden was currently in the lead, with five of the thirteen keys. Trump has three, but the number could change.
“A lot of things would have to go wrong (for the election keys) to go against Biden,” Lichtman said.
‘But they could. I’m very careful not to make any predictions.’
Joe Biden is seen with Allan Lichtman, who is holding a copy of his book. Lichtman believes the signs show that 2024 is Biden’s trend
Lichtman said he believes the election is currently going Biden’s way, using his historical marker system
Lichtman said Biden, pictured on Tuesday, currently has a lead over Trump – despite the polls
He expects to be able to make a prediction in August.
Biden is currently facing terrible polling: A new NBC News poll released Sunday showed his approval has fallen to the lowest level of his presidency, at 37 percent.
Trump leads Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical matchup for the 2024 general election, 47 percent to 42 percent.
However, Lichtman’s system does not take into account opinion polls and shows Biden winning.
Right now, Lichtman said, Biden is winning on Key 3 — an incumbent president running for re-election. He has not faced a serious challenge to his party’s nomination, which gives him Key 2, and has made major policy changes, Key 7.
He wins Key 6: favorable long-term economic trends.
Real economic growth per capita – after inflation – over the past four years has equaled or exceeded the average growth rate during the previous two presidential terms.
Lichtman also gives Biden Key 13, which states: “The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.”
He conceded that Trump is a hero to some, but said the definition only applies to bipartisan heroes in the Eisenhower example.
Trump wins three of the categories.
He wins Key 1, what Lichtman calls party mandate.
After the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats will hold fewer seats in Congress than after the previous midterm elections, in 2018.
Trump wins Key 12, because Lichtman judges that Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero.
Trump’s third victory is with Key 11, as Lichtman judges that there has been no “major foreign policy or military success” under this administration.
Lichtman argued that the withdrawal from Afghanistan would not be registered in his list in 2021, Lichtman, arguing that it was barely mentioned during the Republican presidential debates and that people seem to have forgotten about it.
Perhaps the most controversial key is 9: ‘The current government is not tainted by major scandals.’
Lichtman said the Trump campaign has failed to pin a scandal on Biden’s administration
Lichtman said he thinks he can make a prediction by August
Lichtman says the Trump campaign has not yet managed to let any scandal stick with the Biden administration.
Lichtman, a Democrat, said his system is not based on personal opinion.
“This is the secret of a successful forecaster,” he told Market Watch.
‘The most important thing is that you keep your own personal views out of it. I’ve mentioned about as many Republican victories as Democratic victories. In 2016, I was almost alone in predicting a victory for Donald Trump.”