CRAIG HOPE: Newcastle’s giant strides were a mirage… qualifying for the Champions League created an illusion and only now that the stardust has cleared are we seeing the size of the task in front of them
Newcastle United created an illusion when qualifying for the Champions League. The Top Six was now a Top Seven. The Saudi Arabia club had arrived. In reality, the train had not long left the station.
What Eddie Howe and his players achieved last season was a mirage. Look at Tyneside from afar and there was a shiny new superpower, powered by Saudi petrodollars. Rather, get close and you realize that the rotting club the owners inherited has been given a clean and some minor repairs for the time being. The major renovation works are still in their infancy.
In Howe’s first 18 months and the new owners – led on site by Amanda Staveley, Mehrdad Ghodoussi and Jamie Reuben – they got almost everything right.
They have violated financial fair play rules in a way that goes beyond blame – simply by being good. Good at coaching. Good at recruitment. Good at reuniting a broken football club. So good that it even looked easy. The mistaken belief was that Saudi money had made their success possible. Helped, yes, but not enabled. The facilitator was primarily Howe.
In three transfer windows between the takeover and fourth place in the Premier League – the team was 19th when Howe was appointed – Newcastle spent £250 million on new players. In the same period, Chelsea spent £500 million and rose from third to twelfth place. Manchester United invested over £200 million and were stagnant at best.
Newcastle created the illusion that there was a Big Seven in the Premier League and that the club had arrived in Saudi hands by qualifying for the Champions League
This season has been more difficult and it is now clear how big a task Newcastle have ahead of them at the top
Eddie Howe took the club much further than the bare figures should have allowed
For Newcastle, the presence of their Public Investment Fund ownership (worth £700 billion) meant that assumptions were made too easily: they had bought their way to the top and that is where they would stay.
However, given their standing start, there was little point in traveling so quickly and so far in such a short period. The true extent of Howe’s influence was never fully appreciated. He had taken the club much further than what the bare figures would normally have allowed.
Therefore, the greatest danger to Howe has always been Howe himself. Raising the bar requires the head coach to lower it even further, at least through the lens of those outside the city. But here, in Newcastle, there is patience and understanding. The manager will be buoyed by a storm that has ruined a winter of eight defeats in eleven.
That’s not to say Howe and his team would never repeat what they did last season. But to stay ahead of a financial curve whose revenues are almost half that of Tottenham (the poorest relation of the Top Six) they would have to get everything in order again. And in football, such competence and luck are the exception, not the rule.
The recruitment went wrong this time, for several reasons. Sandro Tonali’s gambling ban has, as one source put it, “killed our season.” Harvey Barnes has been injured since September. Tino Livramento was impressive but made just six league starts.
While Lewis Hall is not yet at the required level and is being held in reserve. Twelve months from now this quartet might look like a smart signing, but in the isolation of this season their impact is barely felt.
Add to that injury rates that have long been in double figures and a schedule that limits Howe’s exposure on the training pitch, and Newcastle have fallen to mid-table. If there’s anything positive that can be taken for Howe and the hierarchy, it’s that the setbacks of this campaign should serve as a reality check, especially for those on the outside waiting for continued success.
Of course they are better than in the middle of the table. But their recovery could be incremental, as opposed to the giant steps that gave the false impression of a new giant in town.
It will take one step back to take two forward, and player sales could hinder progress in the short term.
This month, for example, they are at their FFP limit and if Bayern Munich return with a significant bid for Kieran Trippier – a loan rejected on Saturday – he will likely be allowed to leave, a thought previously unthinkable.
The major renovation work that Newcastle’s owners are due to undertake is still in its infancy
Recruitment has gone wrong this season for a number of reasons, including Sandro Tonali’s gambling ban
Newcastle have reached their FFP limit and the likes of Kieran Trippier (pictured) and Joelinton could leave
Joelinton, whose wage demands are well in excess of what the club are willing to pay, is also a contender to be sold this summer if an extension to an 18-month contract is not agreed, especially as his £40m transfer is out 2019 is almost over. in terms of depreciation settled. This means that the majority of the compensation received is recorded as profit in the FFP calculations. Those are the figures currently being looked at at St James’ Park.
As Howe said earlier this month, ‘the richest club in the world’ means nothing if you can’t spend the owners’ money. Being the manager of a club that is considered so rich and being in tenth place in the table is not a good look either.
Except: that’s the illusion. Newcastle are not the super club made out in light of their finish in the top four and beating Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 in the Champions League. Howe’s magic had done a trick on the eye.
Only now that the stardust has disappeared do we see the magnitude of the task ahead. Revenue streams must flow and grow in order to prosper. What happened last season and afterwards, with nights like PSG, was almost a window into the future. They need a lot more than the manager’s wand to get back there.