AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the New Hampshire primaries
WASHINGTON — The race for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations will converge on New Hampshire on Tuesday in the first primaries of the season — though the battle on the Democratic side may only count for bragging rights.
The Republican primary will test former President Donald Trump’s standing in a state he carried by a comfortable margin in the 2016 primaries but has a significantly more moderate electorate than the state that gave him a big victory in the Iowa caucuses.
It will also be a test for former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who wants to position herself as the main alternative to Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who overtook Haley for second place in Iowa, is now focusing his efforts on South Carolina after two scheduled debates in New Hampshire were canceled.
Trump has held a consistent lead in the polls, with Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, appearing to be in the strongest position among his rivals.
In the Democratic primary, President Joe Biden will not appear on the ballot because the election violates national party rules he has pushed for, but supporters have mounted a write-in campaign on his behalf. The Biden campaign has not endorsed the write-in effort. Among the Democratic candidates whose names will appear on the ballot are U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
New Hampshire’s presidential primaries will be held on Tuesday. The last polls in the state close at 8:00 PM ET, although polls in most of the state close at 7:00 PM ET and some close at 7:30 PM ET. In tiny Dixville Notch, which has only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight ET and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast their ballots.
The Associated Press will cover both the Democratic and Republican presidential elections. The Republican primaries will feature the names of 24 candidates, including DeSantis, Haley and Trump. The ballot paper also includes the names of candidates who dropped out, such as Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and others. The names of 21 candidates will appear on the Democratic ballot, including Phillips and Williamson. Biden will not appear on the ballot.
Registered party members may only vote in their party’s primaries. In other words, registered Democrats may only vote in the Democratic primaries, and registered Republicans may only vote in the Republican primaries. Independent or unaffiliated voters can vote in either primary. New voters can register at a polling place on the first day, but the deadline to change party affiliation for voters already registered was in October. Seventeen-year-olds who turn 18 in the November general election will be eligible to vote in the primaries.
For Republicans, statewide primary results will be used to determine how many of New Hampshire’s 22 Republican National Convention delegates each candidate won. Delegates are assigned to candidates in proportion to their share of the statewide vote, although a candidate must receive at least 10% of the vote to be eligible for delegates. Any unassigned delegates will be awarded to the statewide winner. Unlike some other states, New Hampshire’s Republican delegates are not assigned by congressional district.
For Democrats, no delegates will be allocated based on the results of the primaries, according to the Democratic National Committee, which handles the nomination process.
Trump won a competitive primary in New Hampshire in 2016 with 35% of the vote, more than double the votes of his nearest competitor, then-Ohio Governor John Kasich. He did best in heavily Republican areas of the state, outperforming Kasich by nearly 4-1. Trump did less well in heavily Democratic areas of the state, although he still finished slightly ahead of Kasich in those parts of the state.
In Iowa, Haley performed best in the state’s more Democratic-friendly areas, but she finished with more votes than the former president in just one county. To be competitive against Trump in New Hampshire, she will certainly have to beat Trump outright in the state’s Democratic strongholds. If Trump posts large margins in these areas, including in Concord and Portsmouth, he is likely on his way to a decisive statewide victory.
Many New Hampshire towns report all or nearly all of their votes at once. The Associated Press will analyze these early returns and compare them to past election results, which can help determine whether early returns provide a clear indication of the winner.
The Democratic race is complicated by Biden’s write-in factor. The AP will report voting results for the 21 candidates on the ballot, as well as for “Unprocessed Entries,” and once those ballots are sorted and counted by name, for “Enroll Joe Biden” or “Other Entries.” in.”
The AP will analyze results from cities as they begin reporting candidate-specific registration totals to determine whether Biden’s registration effort has prevailed. New Hampshire’s secretary of state has expressed optimism about local election officials’ ability to tabulate and report write-in votes, but any delay in determining Biden’s share will slow how quickly the AP is able to declare a winner.
The AP will declare winners in both primaries, as well as a runner-up determination in the Republican contest. The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
There is no automatic recount in New Hampshire’s presidential election, but any candidate who receives at least 9% of the votes cast can request a recount for a fee. The fee will be refunded if the person who requested it is declared the winner.
As of December 28, 2023, there were approximately 873,000 registered voters in New Hampshire. Registered Republicans make up 31% of voters, compared to 30% for Democrats. Independent or unaffiliated voters make up 39% of all voters.
In the recent Democratic presidential primaries in New Hampshire, turnout was 43% of eligible voters – those registered as Democrats or unaffiliated – in 2020 and 41% in 2016. On the Republican side, turnout was 23% of eligible voters in 2020. , when Trump ran for re-election, and 44% in 2016, when Trump first ran for office.
Pre-election voting is not particularly popular in New Hampshire. In the 2020 primaries, votes cast before Election Day made up just 7% of Democratic primaries and 4% of Republican primaries.
In the 2020 New Hampshire primary, the AP first reported results at 12:13 a.m. ET for the Democratic race and at 12:14 a.m. ET for the Republican race, reflecting the small handful of votes cast by the state as of midnight on the first morning has released. Primary night results were first reported at 7:32 PM ET for Republicans and at 7:34 PM ET for Democrats.
Primary night tabulation ended at 1:12 a.m. ET for the Democratic election, with 93% of the total votes counted, and at 1:14 a.m. ET for the Republicans with 92% of the votes counted.
The Manchester and Concord areas typically report results faster than the rest of the state. Voter reporting in the northern half of New Hampshire generally lags behind that in other parts of the state.
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