Silence before the storm? Covid rates peaked at Christmas when the highly contagious ‘Juno’ strain arrived – but experts warn of a surge after New Year as flu and norovirus continue to bite

Covid rates in England spiked over the festive period, surveillance data shows, amid fears of an imminent resurgence fueled by another variant.

During the peak of the wave before Christmas, up to one in seventeen people were infected in the worst-hit areas.

Prevalence rates skyrocketed in a trend due to the emergence of a new species called Juno.

Testing figures from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) show the virus started to decline on December 23, with numbers continuing to fall into the new year.

Top experts believe the recession is just a snapshot and predict infections will rise in the coming weeks as millions of children return to school and workers to offices.

Freezing temperatures in January will also force Britons to socialize indoors, giving the virus ample opportunity to spread.

Although Covid no longer poses the same threat as it did in early 2020, thousands are currently hospitalized with the virus every day.

And the fears of a new wave come as NHS facilities are already juggling a spike in flu, norovirus and other seasonal bugs.

The UKHSA and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are monitoring Covid prevalence rates by testing a representative sample of around 30,000 people every week.

The latest results show that 3.2 per cent of people across England were infected at the start of January, compared to a peak of 4.6 per cent just before Christmas.

At the start of 2024, rates were highest in the South West, where 4.3 per cent of people were infected with Covid, followed by the East of England (3.7 per cent) and the North West (3.5 per cent).

Covid declined among all age groups. The number of cases remained highest among 35 to 44-year-olds, with 4.2 percent of this group infected. Covid was also most common among 18 to 34 year olds (4 percent) and 45 to 54 year olds (3.2 percent).

The downturn follows the emergence of Omicron subvariant Juno, scientifically known as JN.1, which now makes up two-thirds of all new cases.

The disease first started spreading in Britain in October and was spotted by the UKHSA as part of routine horizon scanning – the process of monitoring emerging infections.

The variant was flagged because it contained a rogue mutation in the spike protein known to help the virus evade the body’s internal defenses.

Health experts say this makes it easier for the virus to infect the nose and throat compared to other circulating variants, which the immune system can more easily fight due to vaccination and previous infections.

There is no evidence that Juno, as the plant has since been nicknamed, is more dangerous than previous species.

UKHSA officials today warned that virus levels do not always follow a simple pattern of growth, peak and decline and that the ‘early sign’ of a downturn in the data ‘does not immediately indicate that prevalence will continue to fall’.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert from the University of East Anglia, says the ONS data shows a “fairly steep drop” in Covid prevalence.

But he told MailOnline that he is ‘always a bit nervous about the data collected around Christmas and New Year’ as there is more uncertainty in the data.

“Despite what some commentators have warned, respiratory infections tend to spread less quickly over the Christmas and New Year period, so I would wait until the next data release to be 100 percent certain that this decline will continue,” he said. professor said Hunter.

He noted that Juno has accounted for more than half of infections since mid-December, so the peak is likely over — although more data is needed to be sure.

“The number of (Covid) hospital admissions also appears to have fallen,” Professor Hunter said.

Separate Covid hospitalization data published today by NHS England shows that an average of 4,244 patients were infected with the virus every day in the week to January 7.

The figure has risen by eight percent in a week and by 81 percent since the beginning of December. However, it seems to be slowing down.

The figure includes all patients who test positive for the virus, not just those admitted because they are feeling unwell due to Covid.

The latest results show that 3.2 per cent of people across England were infected at the start of January, compared to a peak of 4.6 per cent just before Christmas. Pictured: London Underground commuters wearing masks on January 11

Dr. Simon Clarke, a cellular microbiologist at the University of Reading, told MailOnline that it is ‘encouraging’ to see the number of infections falling.

“Many of us have had coughs and fevers over the Christmas holidays, and some of that will have been Covid,” he said.

‘Fortunately, with high levels of immunity due to a successful and ongoing vaccination campaign, and a population now more accustomed to these viruses, we are not seeing infections translate into hospitalizations or deaths to the extent we saw during the boom times. of the pandemic.

‘While such infections are nothing more than an unpleasant inconvenience for most people, we must remain alert to future versions of the virus, and we must also remember that respiratory infections can still kill people and pose a serious health burden . and social care services.’

In the meantime, Last week, an average of 1,548 people were hospitalized with flu every day, 107 of whom were in intensive care beds.

The increase is 18 percent in one week and two-thirds in two weeks.

It is the highest figure so far this winter and the sixth weekly increase in a row, suggesting the peak of the outbreak has yet to be reached.

But levels are still lower than last year, when more than 5,000 people were in hospital with the virus and Britain was in the middle of its worst flu season for a decade.

However, with the exception of 2023, flu admissions are at the highest level since 2015.

Last week, an average of around 423 patients were in hospital with norovirus, the winter vomiting disease, per day, an increase of 12 percent in a week, but a decrease of six percent in a fortnight.

Meanwhile, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), a common viral infection that causes coughing and sneezing, has subsided but is still spreading. The rates are among the highest in recent years.

The figures provide a snapshot of the pressure on hospitals last week during a six-day strike by trainee doctors, which kicked off January 3 to 9 and was the longest strike in the history of the NHS.

Officially saw it 113,779 hospital appointments and surgeries canceled.

Dr. Alexander Allen, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said the fall in Covid-19 and flu is ‘promising’ but warned that this could be down to the annual pattern of people turning to the NHS less at Christmas.

He said: ‘Some indicators show that flu cases are increasing in the community, so flu season is not over yet.

‘Flu and Covid spread more easily because we spend more time indoors during the colder months.’

Dr. Allen urged people with symptoms of respiratory illness to reduce contact with others, especially those who are vulnerable.

Amy Douglas, a norovirus epidemiologist at UKHSA, urged people experiencing vomiting and diarrhea to stay away from work, school and childcare until 48 hours after their symptoms have passed.

In response to concerns that demand on hospitals due to viruses will rise next week, the NHS is seeking to increase the number of available beds from around 97,600 to 99,000 from January 15.

The health service said today it is making ‘significant progress’ towards this target at a time of an ‘expected peak in Covid and flu patients’.

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, national medical director of the NHS, said the pressure ‘doesn’t take away anything as long as the impact of flu and Covid continues to grow’.

He urged the public to ‘come forward through their GP or 111 for the care they need’ and only use 999 and A&E in emergencies.