Coin tosses, shock winners, kitchen votes, and can ANYONE beat Trump? With eight days to go, the Daily Mail answers key questions about the Iowa caucuses, the starting point for the race for the White House
The 2024 US presidential election officially starts on January 15, when voters in the rural farming state of Iowa register their choice for who should be the Republican Party's candidate.
Unlike most other states, Iowa uses a “caucus” system in which citizens appear at a designated location at a specific time.
Iowa's position at the start of the primaries gives the country, and its three million residents, an outsized voice in the presidential race.
The winner will gain crucial momentum as the candidates head to the ballot in larger states.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gathers with supporters during a “commit to caucus” event at a Whiskey bar in Ankeny, Iowa, U.S., December 2, 2023
What is a caucus and how is it different from a primary?
It is believed that the word “caucus” comes from a Native American term, an Algonquin reference to a gathering of tribal leaders.
Instead of polling places, the Midwestern state has caucus locations, including school gyms, public libraries or even a family kitchen.
People go to their local caucus location at a designated time in the evening and a representative from each candidate speaks to them.
They then cast their votes and the results are counted at each location or district.
In the past, the small number of voters has led to relations being settled by a coin toss.
The system differs from a primary election where polling stations are open all day and voters can also vote by mail.
It is run by the local party, while the primaries are run by the state. The vast majority of states hold primaries.
A view of the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines, Iowa
Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis walks down the stairs as he visits residents of a private home in Iowa
What does the Iowa winner get?
There are about 1,700 counties in Iowa and their results are reported to the state party, which takes just a few hours.
At stake are forty delegates that Iowa sends to the Republican National Convention, who in turn help nominate the party's presidential candidate.
The 40 delegates are allocated proportionally, so that the winner does not get a big advantage.
In 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa with 27.6 percent and received eight delegates.
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, who finished second and third, both received seven.
A woman planning to host a rally for Donald Trump prays at an event in Iowa
Why is Iowa the first state to vote in presidential nominating contests?
After the chaotic 1968 Democratic National Convention, the party decided to stagger the nominating process.
Iowa had a complex process and that is why it was the first to get started in 1972.
The Republican Party also put Iowa first in 1976 and has remained that way ever since, despite complaints from other states.
Critics argue that the Midwestern state is not representative of the rest of America and does not have enough people to justify its position at the start of the election calendar.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley asks new attendees to raise their hands during a campaign town hall in Cedar Falls, Iowa
Republican presidential candidate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during a Citrus Bowl viewing party at a private home in Ankeny, Iowa
Will Democrats hold a caucus in Iowa in 2024?
The Democrats have completely changed their 2024 election process in Iowa.
In the past, they held a process where people had to physically show who they support by gathering with others of like mind at a designated spot at a caucus location.
Neighbors and friends then tried to convince each other to switch groups.
It often led to joking offers of a free drink in exchange for switching sides.
However, there was embarrassing chaos in establishing the 2020 caucus' charge against a malfunctioning mobile app used by caucus officials.
Because Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg led the field, the results were postponed for three days.
The party has switched to a full mail-in voting system and voters have until March 5 to make their choice.
Instead, the Democratic Party has decided that South Carolina will now be the first state to vote in its election.
Spectators listen as Republican presidential candidate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks during a campaign event in Waukee, Iowa
Casey DeSantis, wife of Republican presidential candidate Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, at an event in Iowa
Why is Iowa so important?
The 40 delegates awarded by Iowa represent only 1.6 percent of the total number of delegates that will be sent by all states to the Republican National Convention to choose the presidential candidate.
However, Iowa is seen by candidates, donors and political strategists as a testing ground because it produces the first actual results of the process.
The winner gains momentum – what George HW Bush called the “Big Mo” after he won Iowa in 1980.
Undecided donors begin giving money to the winner, while candidates who underperformed in Iowa come under pressure to drop out.
A grain elevator towers over a house in Masonville, Iowa
A lawn sign in Raymond, Iowa
Does Iowa predict the winner?
Iowa's reputation for predicting the eventual occupant of the White House stems from the surprise rise of Georgia's little-known governor, Jimmy Carter, who unexpectedly won the 1976 caucuses.
The Iowa winner was victorious on many other occasions.
However, especially recently, the state's results have not been very successful.
Donald Trump lost Iowa to Ted Cruz in 2016, but ultimately reached the White House.
In 2008, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won Iowa, and in 2012 the winner was former Senator Rick Santorum.
Neither Huckabee nor Santorum were able to secure the Republican nomination.
A campaign sign supporting Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy sits in the front yard of a Jesup, Iowa
The campaign bus for Republican presidential candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, is parked outside a campaign event in Marion, Iowa
Can anyone beat Trump in Iowa?
The polls suggest not, but Iowa has produced many surprising results.
An average of recent polls shows Trump at 51 percent, ahead of Ron DeSantis at 19 percent and Nikki Haley at 16 percent.
That has been the case for many weeks.
Observers in Iowa note that the electorate can rally behind a candidate at a very late stage.
The amount of time a candidate has spent in the state Assembly with voters should also not be underestimated, and Trump has attended less than his rivals.
DeSantis has completed the “full Grassley,” named after state Sen. Chuck Grassley, which means visiting all 99 counties.
Much also depends on how well a campaign gets its voters to caucus sites.
On a cold January night, many people have other commitments or a lack of childcare.
However, Gentry Collins, a veteran Republican strategist who managed Mitt Romney's 2008 caucus campaign, said: “To me for a long time it looked like there was a narrow alley, but there was an alley for a non-Trump candidate.
'But there isn't really one alternative that people can support.'