Russia’s casualty toll in Ukraine war will top half a million dead or wounded by 2025, UK says after Putin’s deadly missile barrage killed at least 32 civilians

The number of Russian casualties in the war in Ukraine will surpass half a million dead or wounded by 2025 if casualties continue at the current rate, Britain said.

An 18-hour airstrike in Ukraine killed at least 32 civilians on Friday, days after Ukraine attacked a Russian warship in the occupied Crimean port of Feodosia, as the war continues into its 23rd month.

The average daily number of wounded or dead Russian troops increased by almost 300 per day over the course of 2023 compared to last year, according to the latest Defense Intelligence update.

Defense Secretary Grant Shapps compared the scale of the deaths and injuries to the nine-year Soviet-Afghan war, when Russia suffered 70,000 casualties.

The update said the increase “almost certainly” reflects the degradation of Russia's armed forces and the transition to “a mass army of lower quality and large numbers since the 'partial mobilization' of reservists in September 2022.”

Firefighters extinguish a fire in a damaged business after a Russian missile attack on December 29, 2023 in Kharkiv, Ukraine

It will likely take Russia five to 10 years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained and experienced military units, the report said.

“In Vladimir Putin's senseless war, if casualties continue at the current rate until next year, by 2025 Russia will have suffered more than half a million deaths and injuries in three years of war,” he wrote in a post on previously Twitter.

Moscow continued its assault on Ukraine on Friday, launching 122 missiles and dozens of drones across the country in an attack described by an air force official as the largest air barrage of the war.

At least 144 people were injured and an unknown number buried under rubble in the attack, which damaged a maternity hospital, apartment blocks and schools.

Western officials and analysts recently warned that Russia had limited its cruise missile attacks for months in an apparent effort to build up supplies for massive attacks over the winter, hoping to break the spirit of Ukrainians.

Smoke rises in the sky over the city after a Russian missile and drone attack in Kiev, on December 29, 2023

A firefighter works at the scene of a Russian missile attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on December 29, 2023

A firefighter works at a site of a warehouse heavily damaged during a Russian missile attack in Kiev, December 29, 2023

Emergency services work at the scene of a nighttime rocket attack on a shopping center in Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk region, southeastern Ukraine, on December 29, 2023

Fighting along the front line has been largely bogged down by winter weather after Ukraine's summer counter-offensive failed to make a significant breakthrough along the 1,000 kilometer line of contact.

After the last Russian attack, shelling continued in eastern and southern Ukraine and in the Russian border areas.

One man was killed late Friday by a rocket at a house in Russia's Belgorod region, regional head Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on social media.

Another four people were injured, including a 10-year-old child, he added.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak joined Mr Shapps in condemning Russian President Putin after Friday's attack, with Mr Shapps labeling the attacks as 'murderous air strikes'.

The British government said hundreds of British air defense missiles are being shipped to Ukraine in a bid to boost its defense capabilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has in recent weeks urged Western allies to provide the country with more air defenses to protect themselves from such air attacks.

These are signs of war fatigue, putting pressure on efforts to maintain support.

Zelensky said Kremlin forces have used a wide variety of weapons, including ballistic and cruise missiles.

“Today Russia uses almost every type of weapon in its arsenal,” Zelensky said on X, formerly Twitter, on Friday.

British military support to Ukraine included a total commitment of £4.6 billion, of which £2.3 billion was set aside until the end of the financial year.