Nikki Haley has bet her 2024 bid on South Carolina. But much of her home state leans toward Trump
GILBERT, S.C. — Standing in a rustic barn a short drive from the state capital, Henry McMaster shocked many South Carolina Republicans seven years ago by endorsing Donald Trump for president.
Subsequently, Lieutenant Governor McMaster became the highest-ranking state official to endorse Trump in 2016. The event took place in Lexington County, the adopted political home of then-Gov. Nikki Haley, who had repeatedly criticized Trump and supported Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Trump would win the 2016 primaries in South Carolina and ultimately win the presidency. After campaigning against him, Haley would accept his appointment as ambassador to the United Nations, making McMaster governor.
That complicated history comes to the fore as Haley makes a spirited bid to become the leading Republican alternative to Trump. Her strategy is aimed at strong turnout in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire caucuses next month, before much of the campaign's focus shifts to South Carolina, where the Feb. 24 contest will be the last for anyone other than Trump. chance to prove they can survive.
But her home state has moved closer to Trump in the nearly decade since she last ran for state, threatening her ability to tap into her local roots to deliver the victory she has promised.
“Ten years is an eternity when all politics is national,” said Matt Moore, former state chairman of the Republican Party. “Trump tapped thousands of low-frequency voters who reshaped South Carolina politics. Many of them were not previously, or even now, focused on state-level issues.”
The former president has the support of almost every major South Carolina Republican this time around. Senator Lindsey Graham, who opposed Trump, suggested he would destroy the Republican Party and openly questioned McMaster's views on the 2016 endorsement. He is now a close ally of the former president and co-chairs Trump's state campaign with McMaster.
South Carolina's lieutenant governor, state treasurer, attorney general and three of the six Republican members of the U.S. House all support Trump. The only member of Congress to support Haley is Rep. Ralph Norman, a longtime ally.
Trump drew an estimated 50,000 people to a thrilling Fourth of July rally in Pickens, South Carolina, in the heavily conservative Upstate region. Haley, meanwhile, set a record last month for her campaign with 2,500 people along the state's south coast, known for its wealthier and more traditionally conservative population.
John Reed, a businessman from upscale Hilton Head Island who donated to Haley's 2010 campaign, supported Trump in 2016 and 2020. But this time he's backing Haley because he says she stands in contrast to the “divisive and disrespectful” Trump's tenor.
“I think Nikki is the best of them because she has ability and experience,” Reed said. “Trump's narcissism, pride and arrogance are simply too much for the office.”
Losing South Carolina would be a huge blow to Haley's campaign, which is banking on surviving rivals like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and gaining momentum from people open to a Trump alternative. A home state primary has devastated previous campaigns, including Rubio, who exited the 2016 primaries after a big loss to Trump in Florida. Senator Elizabeth Warren dropped out of the 2020 Democratic race after losing several primaries in one day, including in her home state of Massachusetts.
Lexington County, where McMaster supported Trump, is Haley's political home and the area she represented in the state Legislature. In April, she came back to the same rustic barn to hold a rally for her presidential campaign.
She was little known when she launched a bid for governor against three high-profile candidates — including McMaster — who pushed a message of fiscal responsibility and went after what she described as entrenched powers in Columbia. She joined the “tea party” movement that emerged during President Barack Obama's first term.
Her top endorsement in that race was Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor who remained a powerhouse in Republican politics after her 2008 vice presidential bid. After also being endorsed by Mitt Romney, whose 2008 White House run she had supported, Haley almost won the Republican party's primaries outright, triumphing in the runoff.
Haley points to several accomplishments during her six years as governor, including bringing in economic investment and jobs for the state, requiring companies to verify the employment eligibility of their employees and supporting voter ID legislation. She is perhaps best remembered nationally for helping convince the Legislature to remove the Confederate battle flag from the Statehouse grounds after a mass shooting in which a white gunman killed eight black church members attending a Bible study — though Haley previously called for the need coming down from the flag.
Haley's presidential campaign points to her past popularity in South Carolina as a signal that she will perform well when it comes time for her home state's voters to make their choice.
“The people of South Carolina first elected Nikki when she was the anti-establishment, conservative candidate for governor,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas. “They know she has what it takes to win because they've seen her beat the odds before – and not just once. , only twice.”
But Trump changed Republican politics in South Carolina and nationally.
That includes Lexington County, where the Republican Party has been roiled for months by a legal battle between two people claiming to oversee it, a division within a recently elected slate that espouses the “Make America Great Again” vision of Trump supports.
Michael Burgess, who served as vice chairman of the Lexington County Republican Party and described himself as a “never, never Trumper,” said he sensed the region's shift toward populism in the years after Trump's 2016 election.
“Lexington County is a microcosm of South Carolina,” said Burgess, who teaches AP US History at a local high school. “What we have seen since the 2020 election is a concerted effort by MAGA to adopt the mechanics of the county parties, and essentially, if they do, to oust the long-term Reagan Republican incumbents. ”
Burgess, who said he voted for neither Trump nor Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 and supported Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, said he initially supported South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott in the 2024 Republican Party primaries , but now sees Haley as the best bet of the lot. to beat Trump.
But another person who supported Haley when she ran for office in 2010 now blames her for criticizing Trump in 2016, even though he supported her work as governor.
“When she came out and said, 'We have to ignore a lot of the loud voices,' it really rubbed me the wrong way because it was those voices that got her elected governor,” said Allen Olsen, who founded a “tea organization”. party” group in Columbia, the capital of South Carolina. “Although I understood what she was doing, it really felt like I was being stabbed in the back.”
State Rep. RJ May, leader of the House Freedom Caucus, argued that Haley is now more of an established figure because of her service as governor and then as ambassador to the United Nations.
He said he doesn't see Trump the same way — even though Trump is now a former president running his third campaign for the White House.
“It's hard to take that line from Donald Trump given the weaponizing of the federal government that we're seeing,” said May, who has not endorsed a candidate in the presidential primaries. “One thing I don't think you can call Donald Trump is an insider.”
But there are still people in South Carolina who have been waiting for Haley to run for the White House.
At the event in Bluffton, South Carolina, which drew 2,500 people, Veronica Wetzel wore a “Nikki 2024” hat that she said she bought years ago. Now she said she's willing to vote for Haley, in part because she wants Republicans to win in November.
“I really don't know if Donald Trump can win,” Wetzel said, adding that she had supported Trump in previous elections. “We need to put someone in there who can win, because the last thing we need right now is to lose these elections.”
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Meg Kinnard can be reached at http://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP