Election fever will grip the world in 2024, says RUTH SUNDERLAND

Britain isn't the only country with a big vote on the horizon. The coming year will be a spectacle of elections around the world, some of which will also have profound consequences for the British economy.

The World Economic Forum has described 2024 as a “historic” election year, with billions of voters in 50 countries including Britain, the US, India and Russia going to the polls. They won't all be free and fair votes.

The outcomes are clearly unpredictable, although few would bet against Vladimir Putin.

It seems safe to suggest that we should expect higher international volatility, trade tensions, rifts on issues such as climate change, rising populism and growing concerns about artificial intelligence (AI), including its use to manipulate elections.

One of the first and most important polls is the mid-January vote on Taiwan's next president. The result could lead to increasing hostility between the US and China. The main issue in the elections is how this small island of 24 million will deal with the looming shadow of Beijing, which has made no secret of its view of Taiwan as part of its territory.

This is important not only when it comes to defending democracy, but also when it comes to trade and technology. Nearly half of the global container fleet and 88% of the world's largest ships by tonnage passed through the Taiwan Strait last year.

Any conflict affecting shipping lanes would further disrupt global supply chains and raise new inflation fears. Taiwan is also at the center of the global advanced computer chip industry, through its flagship company TSMC.

The chips are needed to run 5G mobile technology and AI. As such, they are among the most important strategic assets on the planet over which both the US and China are determined to gain dominance.

The outcome of the US elections in November will, as always, ripple across the world.

It is likely that Joe Biden will face Donald Trump, in a geriatric contest where the combined age of the two candidates is 160.

Curiously, Trump, who is expected to stand trial on 91 criminal cases, is less criticized for his age than Biden, but is not much younger: The Donald would be 82 by the end of a four-year term.

Closer to home, the European Union will elect its next parliament in 2024. In Germany, three states, Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia, with a population of about nine million, have elections for their Landtags. The expectation is that the Alternativ für Deutschland, a populist party, will flourish.

As for Britain, voters are tired after 13 years of a Tory party that failed to take advantage of Brexit options and failed to curb illegal immigration.

It could be worse: inflation is declining and the economy is not in recession. There are still industries and companies we can be proud of.

Starmer lacks charisma and he and his shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves do not appear to have a compelling story that will capture the imagination of voters.

In the wrangling of Westminster politics we sometimes forget that, compared to some other countries, it is not as turbulent. Even a divisive event like Brexit took place in a relatively civilized manner: no shots were fired.

By global and historical standards, our elections are unlikely to bring dramatic change. But as an island nation with an open and outward-looking economy, the rest of the world matters too.