2024 outlook: Traditional care and faxes on the way out; retail care executes its plans
In 2024, healthcare and healthcare IT will feel the continued erosion of traditional healthcare paradigms, will be impacted by a shift in retail from exuberant expansion to the long game of execution, and will finally, finally, witness the death of the fax machine.
Here's next year's outlook, brought to you by Laura Kreofsky, digital transformation program director at Cascadia Health, a community health provider in Oregon, and executive consultant at Pivot Point Consulting, a health IT consulting firm where she has spent more than a decade helping of healthcare systems of all sizes in the digital transformation.
We interviewed Kreofsky for a deep dive into her views on what she sees as big changes ahead.
Q: You say that by 2024, healthcare will experience the continued erosion of traditional healthcare paradigms. Please provide some more information.
A. As we look broadly at the healthcare industry as we enter the new year, it is clear that it is fundamentally turning itself upside down. This is not a radical disruption, but rather a confluence of forces that will continue into 2024 and beyond.
The traditional healthcare model, rooted in primary care physicians supervising care with aligned specialists and community hospitals, will continue to fade in the rearview mirror in 2024. Patients and their families have become accustomed to meeting their own health and wellness needs. at the right time, in the right place.
Retail healthcare will continue to displace primary care. The retail healthcare market expected to grow from $2.8 billion in 2023 to $6.4 billion in 2030. For consumers, obtaining care and services at the local CVS or Walmart will shift from new to normal; this shift will have broader implications.
Hospitals and healthcare systems will continue to account for the majority of healthcare spending (65% as of 2020) for the foreseeable future, but their role will continue to shift from ostensibly caring for all patients at all stages of health and well-being to 'targeted care'. factory model this results in a limited product mix for a specific market niche: complex acute care and operations.
Importantly, this shift is not just about specialty hospitals and surgery centers, but about the changing role of hospitals in the healthcare ecosystem as a whole.
The impact of social determinants of health and the rise of healthcare equity as a social imperative is expanding the role of community health centers and community-based organizations, effectively connecting people to resources. As the above shifts occur, these agencies are uniquely equipped to provide “whole person care.”
In fact, they may be the only organizations equipped to do so in the short term. Regardless of their payment options, what other healthcare provider wants to help patients with their often complex medical, behavioral, dental and other needs? And for many physicians, advanced practice providers, and other health care providers who are exhausted by the toll of occupational medicine and long for the “mission” side of healthcare, these healthcare organizations can become attractive employers of choice.
Q. You say that retail healthcare will shift from exuberant expansion to a long-term execution game in the coming year. How do you see this playing out?
A. For the “Big Four Retailers” in healthcare – Amazon, CVS, Walgreens and Walmart – 2024 will bring a pivotal shift from the land grab of years past to strategic execution for long-term success. Of this group, CVS appears to have the clearest ambitions and strengths in the market.
As the second largest healthcare company in the world, with a market capitalization of more than $140 billion, the company has made strides in home care, chronic disease management and care coordination, along with strong investments in data and technology – all critical to managing complex patient care. in value-based payment models.
CVS leadership anticipated market challenges in 2024 as it continues to strengthen its positions. By mid-2023, CVS recorded restructuring charges of $496 million and eliminated 5,000 non-customer-facing jobs.
Walgreens Health also expects market challenges in the coming years. In October 2023, it announced a $1 billion cost-cutting initiative and the closure of 60 clinics in unprofitable markets. A month later, it announced an effort to “streamline operations by eliminating 267 corporate workforce positions.”
Walmart Health will continue to expand in the coming year – it plans to double its footprint of health centers across the country by the end of 2024. However, in actual growth this is only 28 new health centers. This slow and steady strategy could be critical to long-term success in healthcare for Walmart and its partners.
Meanwhile, Amazon continues its “big on splash, low on strategy” forays into healthcare. The $3.9 billion acquisition of One Medical in 2022 expanded Amazon's reach into primary care with 220 clinics in 29 metro areas and provided a wealth of member health data from the more than 8,500 companies One Health contracts with .
However, the integration of the two entities is slow and amorphous. In the meantime, Amazon continues to promote its virtual first strategy by using its Prime Memberships to enroll members in its subscription programs.
Q. And finally, you have a decent prediction for 2024: the death of the fax machine. What's going to happen?
A. The fax machine has been the prevailing technology for care coordination for almost 60 years. It is also relied upon for insurance benefit enrollment with the largest healthcare payers.
Could it be that by 2024, integrated information exchange will surpass fax for referrals, communications, and care management across the entire healthcare and community services ecosystem?
Platforms like Unite Us and Find Help continue to gain popularity among healthcare organizations and community agencies that provide the next mile of care: substance abuse treatment, food banks, shelter and transportation.
These tools are an essential link in whole-person care, making it easier to find providers and make accurate referrals within native EHR workflows. Importantly, they also help reduce supplier frustration and burnout.
Public and private payers recognize their utility in care management and care coordination, especially in the context of value-based care – so much so that they fund the purchase and use of these tools.
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