Israel-Hamas LIVE: Israeli troops continue search of Al-Shifa hospital as UN warns it cannot distribute aid in Gaza

Israel risks facing a prolonged and bloody uprising if it defeats Hamas and occupies Gaza without a credible post-war plan to withdraw its troops and take steps toward establishing a Palestinian state, US and Arab officials say , diplomats and analysts.

None of the ideas put forward so far by Israel, the United States and Arab countries for Gaza’s post-war governance have managed to gain traction, according to two U.S. and four regional officials and four diplomats familiar with the discussions, which raises anxiety. the Israeli army could become embroiled in a protracted security operation.

As Israel tightens its control over northern Gaza, some officials in Washington and Arab capitals fear it is ignoring the lessons of the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, when quick military victories were followed by years of violent militancy.

If Gaza’s Hamas-led government is overthrown, infrastructure destroyed and economy ruined, the radicalization of an angry population could fuel an uprising against Israeli forces in the enclave’s narrow streets, diplomats and officials say.

Israel, the US and many Arab states agree that Hamas must be expelled after it launched a cross-border attack on October 7 that killed some 1,200 people and took around 240 hostages. But there is no consensus on what should replace it.

Arab countries and Western allies have said a revived Palestinian Authority (PA), which partly rules the West Bank, is a natural candidate to play a bigger role in Gaza, home to some 2.3 million people .

But the credibility of the Authority – led by 87-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party – has been undermined by the loss of control of Gaza to Hamas during a 2007 conflict and its inability to prevent the spread of Israeli settlements in the region. to stop the West. Bank, and allegations of widespread corruption and incompetence.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this weekend that the PA should not take over control of Gaza in its current form. He said the Israeli army is the only force capable of eliminating Hamas and ensuring that terrorism does not reemerge. In the wake of Netanyahu’s comments, Israeli officials have emphasized that Israel has no intention of occupying the Gaza Strip.

US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu on Wednesday that occupying Gaza would be “a big mistake.” So far, the US and its allies have seen no clear roadmap from Israel for its exit strategy from Gaza, beyond the stated goal of eradicating Hamas, diplomats say. U.S. officials are urging Israel to set realistic goals and devise a plan on how to achieve them.

Washington’s discussions on a post-war plan for Gaza are in the very early stages with the PA, other Palestinian stakeholders and allies including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to two US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“We are certainly not there yet in terms of any attempt to sell that vision to our regional partners, who will ultimately have to live with it or implement it,” a senior US official said.

While Biden has insisted that the war must end with a “vision” for a two-state solution – which would unite the Gaza Strip and the West Bank into a Palestinian state – he and his senior aides have provided no details on how they expect to achieve this , nor suggested a restart of the talks.