The chilling verdict of LORD ASHCROFT based on his exclusive election polling: Bitterly divided, America is set to be embroiled in even more acrimony

The genius of the American political system is that the parties spend a year searching for the most competent, energetic, thoughtful, reliable, competent and generally impressive individuals they can find before running against each other before an election for the highest office in the country. At least, that’s the theory.

So how is it that, as things stand, the US is headed for a rematch between a stumbling, wandering eight-year-old and a man facing 91 criminal charges?

Believe it or not, the campaign for the presidential election next November is not really about Donald Trump or Joe Biden or anyone else but the voters.

The fact is that whatever the candidates’ own motives for plowing ahead, choosing the next American president is about policy and issues and how they affect the American people.

For many of these voters, times are tough. In my poll, few say they are better off than three years ago. Even those who voted for Biden in 2020 are more likely to say they are worse off than the reverse. While rising prices are at the top of their list of concerns, crime, border control, housing, health care, drug addiction, mental health and the nation’s mounting debt are not far behind.

Believe it or not, the campaign for the presidential election next November isn’t really about Donald Trump or Joe Biden (pictured) or anyone else but the voters.

People also fear America’s increasing dependence on China and yearn for more economic independence, especially when it comes to manufacturing and energy.

Almost three years after Trump left office, the US is not a happy country.

One thing on which all sides agree, ironically, is that his successor was unable to live up to hopes that he would end the divisiveness and rancour of American political life. The polarization is not limited to Washington, but is increasingly felt in everyday life.

In my research, Republicans have told us that they don’t like the aggressively liberal agenda they see creeping into institutions and even schools, especially on race and transgender issues, but they often keep quiet about their opinions for fear of lecturing or being ostracized.

For their part, Democrats tend to complain about their opponents’ apparent readiness to believe misinformation. Everyone complains that social media entrenches these positions.

It’s not surprising, then, that nearly two-thirds of Americans say their country is on the wrong path and that more Biden voters think it’s headed in the wrong direction rather than the right one.

Nor is it a shock that most say they disapprove of President Biden’s performance in the White House. They are also concerned about his physical condition.

His ramblings on stage and confused public appearances have many on both sides questioning his ability to do the job now, let alone a second term that would end when he would be 86.

It’s hardly a favorable backdrop for a leader seeking re-election, and Republicans feel the contest is theirs to win.

Almost three years after Trump (pictured) left office, the US is not a happy country. One thing on which all sides agree, ironically, is that his successor was unable to live up to the hope that he would end the divisiveness and rancour of American political life.

So why do they seem ready to point to the one man most likely to take out their opponents in bunches? The conventional wisdom is that Trump supporters are a kind of personality cult, for whom their hero can do no wrong.

He certainly has his devoted followers, but for most of his potential voters there is much more to him than that.

The charges played a role. Most Republicans think the charges are politically motivated, meaning that even if there is a case to answer, they doubt such action would be taken against a defendant not named Donald J Trump. Likely voters in the primary round say the charges make them more, rather than less, likely to support him and help rather than hinder his chances of victory.

More than half say Trump should still run even if he is sent to prison – although I’ve listened to them talk about the prospect, I think if Trump were to be convicted by a jury it would cause significant soul-searching.

But the fact that Trump sits above 50 percent in polls of likely primary voters isn’t just due to personal loyalty and anger at what they see as Democrats playing politics with the law. They see someone who will act on the things they care about and defend their values, even if he doesn’t exactly embody them.

Other candidates have drawn attention: notably entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the UN.

(Their supporters largely supported Trump last time, but want – and think the nation wants – to move on from the circus.)

But when it comes to choosing an effective advocate for their interests – as one likely primary voter put it to us – ‘nobody does Trump as well as Trump’.

Those willing to vote for Trump again can see his flaws as clearly as anyone else, but to them their support is a transaction.

They will put up with the things they don’t like in exchange for the things they want – whether that’s a stronger economy, healthier investment returns, a realistic energy policy, an end to left-wing identity politics or, dare I say it say, the chance to make America great again. Democrats often condemn people for making this calculation, but their own continued support for the weakened president shows that their vote is also a deal, just as it was in 2020. For them, Biden was and is the means to an end: stopping Donald Trump.

Few want Biden active, but even fewer see Vice President Kamala Harris as a winner, and many fear that replacing the pair will spark an ugly battle within the Democratic Party that will cost them the White House. They like to say that their vote is a chess piece, not a Valentine.

In other words, we have another one of those irregular verbs you get so often in politics.

When it comes to voting, he’s selfish, you’re transactional, but I’m strategic.

The result is a likely repeat of the last election that plunged America into (further) bitterness.

And there is much more to come.

• Lord Ashcroft is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is published at LordAshcroftPolls.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook @LordAshcroft.