The first Democratic primary is approaching. But where?
After Iowa and New Hampshire kicked off presidential primary season for decades, the Democratic National Committee turned that tradition on its head last year. At the urging of President Joe Biden, who wanted to give voters of color more of a say in the process, the DNC tapped South Carolina to cast its first votes in 2024.
But just four months before the elections were to begin, New Hampshire is not going along with the plan. Democratic leaders here say they plan to thwart the DNC’s agenda. Even if that means holding primaries where President Biden is not on the ballot. Even if it means taking away half of their delegates to next summer’s convention, as the DNC is threatening to do.
Why we wrote this
With just a few months to go until the primary season, Democrats are in turmoil over which state should go first. The dispute pits a new idea against tradition – and could influence voter participation and enthusiasm.
In New Hampshire, officials say their hands are tied by a state law that requires New Hampshire to hold its primaries a week before every other primary in the state.
While the dispute may seem minor, the confusion and frustration can have real costs. In a reelection year that should be all about party unity, some Democrats worry that could dampen enthusiasm and turnout in these and other key swing states.
“We have the DNC trying to tell us not to participate in elections,” said Kathy Sullivan, a former New Hampshire Democratic chairwoman. “That’s not democracy; that’s just stupid.”
In about four months, Democrats will hold their first primaries for the 2024 presidential race. The outcome isn’t really in question — President Joe Biden currently faces only nominal opposition for his party’s nomination.
What is what matters is the location.
Officially, that first vote will take place in South Carolina. After decades of Iowa and New Hampshire kicking off the presidential election calendar, the Democratic National Committee upended that tradition last year at the behest of President Biden, who asked that “voters of color have a voice in choosing our candidate.” much earlier in the process.” The DNC asked South Carolina — which has a sizable population of Black voters, and perhaps not coincidentally, is also reviving Biden’s 2020 campaign — to go first.
Why we wrote this
With just a few months to go until the primary season, Democrats are in turmoil over which state should go first. The dispute pits a new idea against tradition – and could influence voter participation and enthusiasm.
But talk to Democratic officials here in New Hampshire, including some of Mr. Biden’s most ardent supporters, and they will tell you that is not happening.
“Of course” New Hampshire goes first, Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley insisted as he wiped sweat from his brow at an unseasonably warm picnic with local Democrats in Amherst last month. “Didn’t I say that a year ago?”
Although the Granite State has not yet officially filed a waiver announcing its intention to thwart the DNC’s calendar, New Hampshire’s Democratic leaders say outright that they plan to do just that. Even if that means holding primaries in which Mr. Biden is not on the ballot. Even if that means taking away half of their delegates to the national convention next summer, as the DNC is threatening to do.
On one level, the dispute may seem minor. But just like organizing the Olympics, the primary status of ‘first in the country’ comes with real prestige, power – and money. Every four years, presidential campaign staffers and members of the media have descended on New Hampshire to fill hotel rooms and restaurants, while local television and radio stations are flooded with ads.
And some say the confusion and frustration over the calendar changes could come at a real cost. In a reelection year that should focus on party unity, this could dampen enthusiasm and turnout in these and other key swing states — whose electoral votes could well determine the outcome in November.
“New Hampshire will have its first primary, period. It doesn’t matter what the DNC does,” said Kathy Sullivan, former party chair and DNC member from New Hampshire. She accuses the national party of essentially “turning its back on a very hardcore group of Democrats” who want to show their support for the president.
“We have the DNC trying to tell us not to participate in elections,” she says. “That’s not democracy; that’s just stupid.”
Iowa and Georgia also in limbo
The standoff between New Hampshire and the national party has been going on since last December, when the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee officially approved the new primary calendar, which placed South Carolina on February 3. New Hampshire and Nevada would follow on February 6. , with Georgia and Michigan due at the end of the month.
Iowa was completely removed from the Democrats’ early lineup after an unhappy caucus in 2020. But Iowa Democrats are considering hosting a mail-in caucus in mid-January anyway. And Georgia, which got an early spot from the DNC, is having trouble adhering to the new calendar. The state’s Republican governor is setting the date for the primaries and has said he would only move the Democratic primary if the Republican National Committee agreed to move as well — which the RNC appears unwilling to do.
Charlie Neibergall/AP/File
In New Hampshire, officials say their hands are tied by a state law that requires New Hampshire to hold its primaries a week before every other state primary — which the Republican-controlled Legislature and governor have announced they will enforce.
Officials at the DNC appear to have all but resigned to the fact that New Hampshire will likely move forward with a January election date. If that happens, DNC rules state that any Democratic candidate campaigning there will be ineligible to win the state’s delegates to the national convention. In this scenario, the Biden campaign is not expected to put the president’s name on the ballot.
“This is very much Biden’s decision. He’s not going to put his name on the ballot,” said DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member Elaine Kamarck.
However, Biden could still win the state if voters choose to write in his name — an outcome many New Hampshire politicians and party officials are anticipating.
“Ultimately, we will be first and Biden will win the primaries,” Mr. Buckley said. “Then we’re going to carry the state for Biden-Harris in November – and we’ll all move on.”
An impending shame
But some here worry that the whole debacle could dampen turnout in a state that has moved from reliably red to purple. New Hampshire Democrats may see little reason to vote in an unsanctioned primary — and, crucially, many independent voters may choose to participate in the Republican primary instead. Any independent who votes in the Republican primary will be registered as a Republican from then on, unless he changes his registration back to independent.
TD Floras, a sales manager from Nashua, has voted Democratic most of her life but says she plans to vote in the Republican primary next year because she doesn’t want to “throw away” her vote on an unendorsed Democratic election. While she says it’s “really unlikely” she would vote for a Republican in November, she adds that “anything can happen.”
Sophie Hills/The Christian Science Monitor
“People here take the primaries very seriously here,” said Jim Demers, who co-chaired former President Barack Obama’s New Hampshire campaigns and managed Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Independents will vote in the Republican primaries. I think it’s important to keep those Republicans on the Democratic side.”
The DNC says it is confident Biden will win the New Hampshire primary, regardless of when that happens or whether he is on the ballot or not. Polls show the incumbent president leading his current opponents, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, with no fewer than 50 to 70 percentage points.
But some warn it would be an embarrassing turn of events if the president were to somehow lose the first primary of the season, even if it were not approved.
“The DNC is under the false belief that the New Hampshire primary will be irrelevant,” Ms. Sullivan said. “The first headline will be who wins the Republican primary in New Hampshire. The second headline will be: Biden wins by write-in, or RFK Jr. wins the Democratic primaries in New Hampshire. What is the bad headline for Biden?”
Still, national party officials say the embarrassment will be all New Hampshire’s if the state long known for taking presidential politics seriously ends up backing Mr. Kennedy or Ms. Williamson in a low-turnout election in which the U.S. incumbent president is not in the foreground. the mood.
“New Hampshire will either come in second, as we have proposed, or become virtually irrelevant to the process,” said Ms. Kamarck of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee. “The real question is: what happens in 2028?”
Staff writer Sophie Hills contributed to this report.