Expanding military aid boosts Ukraine’s defense capabilities – tanks now, missiles next?

By James On Sep 28, 2023

Ukraine’s fight to oust occupying Russian forces is being bolstered by a growing supply of heavy U.S. armaments — boosting fighters’ hopes even as analysts warn that weapons alone cannot guarantee victory.

American Abrams tanks arrived in Ukraine this week to help ground troops push into Russian-occupied territory. Next, the Biden administration is reportedly poised to announce that U.S. long-range ballistic missiles known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, will soon be headed to the war zone as well.

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New forms of US-supplied firepower promise to boost Ukraine’s capabilities. But the weapons will arrive amid tension between Ukrainian resolve and the human toll of a slow counter-offensive.

These weapons, whose acronym is aptly pronounced ‘attack-em’s’, have been at the top of Ukraine’s wish list since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022. With a range of 300 kilometers, they can penetrate further into Russian-occupied territory than any other missile that countries have supplied to Kiev to date.

Yet their expected arrival offers no guarantee that Ukraine will be able to accelerate its advance against entrenched Russian lines as troops enter a new winter of war.

The counteroffensive “is taking longer than the war game planners … expected,” Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged last week. “But that is the difference between war on paper and real war. There are real people, in real vehicles, moving through real minefields.”

US Abrams tanks arrived in Ukraine this week, months earlier than initially estimated, to help ground forces push into Russian-occupied territory. Next, the Biden administration is reportedly poised to announce that U.S. long-range ballistic missiles known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, will soon be headed to the war zone as well.

Why we wrote this

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New forms of US-supplied firepower promise to boost Ukraine’s capabilities. But the weapons will arrive amid tension between Ukrainian resolve and the human toll of a slow counter-offensive.

They also mark the fulfillment of a massive heavy munitions list that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long lobbied for. They have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s war effort, defense analysts say. Still, some add that their expected arrival does not guarantee that Ukraine will be able to accelerate its advance against entrenched Russian lines as troops enter a new winter of war.

The counteroffensive “is taking longer than the war game planners … expected,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged last week, with the bluntness that has characterized his assessment of conditions there. “But that is the difference between war on paper and real war. There are real people, in real vehicles, moving through real minefields.”

American tanks and long-range missiles will not only be powerful instruments of war, but also be a great morale boost for Ukraine. But to ultimately achieve what U.S. officials say is the desired end state — a “just and lasting peace” — Kiev and its allies must also be honest in the coming weeks about what these weapons can and cannot do, analysts say.

For his part, General Milley has warned of the difficulties Ukrainian fighters will face in the future. Russia has built trenches fortified with “minefields, dragon’s teeth, barbed wire, strong points and so on,” he said last week in Ramstein, Germany, after his final meeting of Western leaders backing Ukraine before he retires at the end of this month. .

Although Ukrainian forces have “penetrated several layers of these defenses,” he said, they are now moving “very slowly” as they try to penetrate a “belt of defense that stretches the entire length and breadth of Russian-occupied Ukraine.” ”

Mstyslav Chernov/AP

A Ukrainian soldier walks through a charred forest on the front line, a few kilometers from Andriivka, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, September 16, 2023.

The decision to give U.S. long-range missiles to Ukraine represents a striking evolution in the Biden administration’s thinking.

Evolving American positions

In the summer of 2022, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan downplayed the idea of providing it to, he said, prevent “World War III.”

When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked earlier this month about concerns that weapons like ATACMS could be used to strike beyond Russian-occupied Ukraine into actual Russian territory, he struck a philosophical note.

“When it comes to how Ukrainians use these systems, the decisions about where to target are theirs – not ours,” he said. “As part of our own policy, we do not encourage or enable the use of our weapons systems outside Ukraine – but again, these are essentially Ukrainian decisions.”

As wars progress, “parties to the conflict learn more about what does and does not count as escalating,” says Anthony Pfaff, research professor of military strategy and ethics at the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute.

Western allies’ shift from previous extreme caution to possible Russian “redlines” could in turn mean “more tolerance for risking escalation up to a certain point,” he adds.

At the same time, “Ukraine is at war with Russia. An attack on a legitimate military target within Russia is “consistent with the parameters of international law,” notes Dr. Pfaff up.

As Ukraine continues to strike within Russia, there could be growing acceptance among Western lenders that this is the way it should be.

Britain and France have already supplied Ukraine with their own long-range missiles, with a range of up to 250 kilometers.

“The lack of Russian response to these deliveries, even after they were reportedly used quite effectively on the battlefield, indicates that ATACMS would not be a bridge too far,” said Benton Coblentz, defense analyst at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. .

The challenges for Ukraine

Yet there will be no easy answers for a Ukrainian victory in this war, Western military officials repeatedly emphasize.

It’s true, for example, that ATACMS will be highly effective when they first arrive on the battlefield, says Daniel Davis, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and now a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington.

That’s because the long-range missiles “will bring into play a whole area that wasn’t possible before,” he notes.

Their warheads, which are significantly more powerful than those of their shorter-range counterparts, will also be able to hit larger targets – which will, among other things, cause major damage to Russia’s logistics networks, Mr Coblentz added.

For example, when High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) rocket launchers were delivered to Kiev last year, Ukrainian forces used them to great effect, demolishing Russian ammunition and fuel depots, logistics bases and command centers.

That could happen again with ATACMS, but not for long, Mr. Davis predicts. After encountering HIMARS, Russian commanders learned how to disperse, camouflage, or move troops out of range. They have also deployed “quite effective electronic warfare” to jam GPS signals and reduce weapon accuracy.

Moreover, the crucial issue of troop strength for Ukraine remains despite the enormous losses of Ukrainian fighters. “It’s a finite number,” Mr. Davis adds, “and not expandable.”

There are currently between 200,000 and 300,000 Russians fighting in Ukraine. Even though Kiev’s goals to drive them out of the country are realistic, Ukrainian leaders must also consider the costs this entails, analysts point out.

As Ukrainians are wounded and killed in battle, this reduces Kiev’s “future capacity, its ability to function as a state – you are just destroying their potential for a generation,” Mr Davis added.

This is the historical tragedy of war; how to disrupt this is less clear.

Some argue that with momentum on its side and Western support at a peak, Kiev should come to the negotiating table in the near future to freeze lines and “make the best deal with Russia so that Kiev can retain its political independence and all territory that it now has,” as Mr. Davis puts it.

Decisions about when it is time to consider a political settlement must ultimately be made by Ukraine, military officials including General Milley have emphasized. President Zelensky has said that negotiations cannot begin until Russian soldiers are expelled from Ukrainian territory.

Until this happens, or his position changes in the near future, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is urging his fellow defense ministers to “dig deep,” delving into their “formidable” arsenals to “make heaven and earth to keep moving to get Ukraine what it needs. now and in the longer term.”