Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in 2024 rematch – and loses key support from independent and younger voters, shock Daily Mail poll reveals

Donald Trump has overtaken Joe Biden in the hypothetical DailyMail.com head-to-head poll in 2024, a year ahead of an expected rematch of the last election.

It shows the frontrunner for the Republican nomination has come back from a two-point deficit in June, when the poll was last conducted, to take a one-point lead over his likely Democratic opponent.

His rise is being fueled by independent voters switching sides and gains among college graduates, who provide the bulk of support for Biden.

However, the race remains incredibly tight. And the poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by JL Partners, has a margin of error of 3.1 points.

Still, it should be a warning sign for the Biden-Harris campaign.

The 2024 election will be a repeat of the 2020 election, when Biden defeated Trump

James Johnson, co-founder of JLP, said: “Just three months ago, a rematch between Trump and Biden looked like the race to lose for Democrats. Now everything has changed and Donald Trump is on the rise again.

“Not only is Trump maximizing enthusiasm among Republicans, he has also outpaced Biden among independents, depressing him among black and Hispanic voters and gaining support among younger men.”

In June, Biden led Trump by 46 points to 44. Now Trump leads Biden by 45 points to 44.

The data shows that Trump now has a two-point lead among people who consider themselves “independent.” Last time, Biden led Trump among independents by 42 points to 38.

He has also gained ground among college graduates, eroding Biden’s dominance in that group. Biden’s lead has fallen from 25 points to 17 points since June.

The poll also showed other Republican candidates with a narrow lead over Biden: Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley leads by two points, while Senator Tim Scott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have a one-point lead in hypothetical matches.

Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence trail by three points and eight points, respectively.

But the focus now is on a showdown between Biden and Trump, who is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination even though he was indicted in a fourth criminal case last month.

The results echo a national NBC poll last weekend that found the two candidates neck-and-neck and deep dissatisfaction about the likely choice in the 2024 election.

Trump appeared at an election event at Sportsman Boats in Summerville, South Carolina, on Monday. He boycotted the second Republican debate to be held in California on Wednesday

Johnson said Biden’s dip was due to a mix of dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and Trump’s aggressive campaign.

“This comes at a time when voters are expressing overwhelming dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy; people are simply not feeling the improved situation that economic growth figures and falling inflation suggest,” he said.

‘There are also major concerns about Biden’s age.

“Another factor: Trump’s mugshot. For many independent voters — who previously worried about Trump’s charges — this mugshot raised questions about the legitimacy of the criminal charges the former president is facing.

“There’s still plenty of time to run, but Democrats who liked the idea of ​​Biden running against Trump in the general election may ultimately have serious cause for regret.”

The survey results should be viewed with caution.

It will still be more than a year before voters cast their votes and a lot can still change.

The electoral college system also means that the results in swing states are more important than the overall national figures.

But the Trump campaign is buoyed by a series of similar findings that show its candidate is on a roll.

“The fact is that President Trump will be the nominee and will beat Biden because he is the only person who can boost the economy, secure our borders, protect communities and end unnecessary wars,” campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said. .

“Americans want to return to a prosperous nation and there is only one person who can do that: President Trump.”

Another poll painted Biden in an even bigger hole on Sunday. The Washington Post survey found the 80-year-old trailing Trump by 10 points.

JL Partner surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 15 to 20. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and show Kamala Harris as the least popular vice president in recent memory

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said voters’ views of Harris produced one of the most brutal word clouds of his career, with words like “incompetent,” “idiot” and “unqualified.”

Other pollsters said it was likely an outlier and left the real race more exciting.

But it also found that Biden’s approval rating was about 37 percent, a disastrous number for a president seeking re-election.

The DaillyMail.com/JLP poll also shows dismal numbers for Biden’s chosen running mate, Kamala Harris.

About 40 percent of respondents said she was the worst vice president in recent history, ahead of Republicans Mike Pence and Dick Cheney.

When asked to choose a word to sum up the vice president, respondents chose “incompetent,” far ahead of complimentary words like “smart” and “strong.”

And if that wasn’t clear enough, nearly half of the thousand people surveyed said Biden should trade his running mate before 2024 — including 27 percent of Democrats and a quarter of Black respondents.