Flooding in Libya shows how disasters are man-made and not Acts of God

By Lara Williams

In early September, heavy rainfall in the Mediterranean Sea led to severe flooding, damage to infrastructure and deaths in several countries. As climate change accelerates more extreme weather events like this, we need to think about how they are framed. These so-called natural disasters are often interpreted as ‘acts of God’, both actuarially and informally, but usually the blame lies more fairly with human actions.

A low-pressure system, dubbed Storm Daniel by the Greek National Meteorological Service, brought downpours for 10 days in several countries, including Spain, Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey and Libya. Rain fell in Spain in just a few hours, but major flooding still led to five fatalities. In Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, rainfall fell for four days, flooding Greece’s agricultural center, the Thessalian Plain. The storm subsequently grew into a ‘medicane’, a hurricane in the Mediterranean Sea, which dumped record high amounts of water on Libya in 24 hours from September 10 to 11. Many areas reportedly received between 150 millimeters and 240 millimeters of rainfall, while the city of Al-Bayda received 414.1 millimeters. By comparison, in an average year, the coastal city of Derna – the epicenter of the resulting crisis in Libya – receives just 274mm of rain.

The experiences in Libya have been particularly catastrophic. Rain is one thing, but the collapse of two huge dams is another. At around 3 a.m. on September 11, water broke through the barriers, unleashing a tsunami-sized flow on Derna’s summit. Approximately 4,000 people are confirmed dead, with over 8,000 still missing as of September 21.

A rapid attribution study found that climate change played a role in the events. In Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, global warming made the chance of heavy precipitation ten times more likely, with as much as 40 percent more rain. In Libya, scientists found this was up to 50 times more likely to happen due to fossil fuel emissions, with as much as 50 percent more rainfall – although weather conditions were still extremely unusual. Friederike Otto, climatologist and co-founder of the World Weather Attribution initiative, told me that the rainfall was far beyond what we had ever seen before.

After extreme events, weather attribution studies have become an important contribution to making part of human-induced global warming. By comparing what exactly happened with models of a world not warmed by greenhouse gas emissions, researchers can calculate whether and how the climate crisis has affected a specific meteorological situation.

It is also important to add human agency. Our collective burning of fossil fuels is intensifying and increasing the frequency of storms and droughts, heat waves and wildfires. But that is not everything. As Otto likes to make clear: disasters happen when danger collides with vulnerability.

Libya is the perfect example. The country, ravaged by years of civil war, corruption and neglect, was already vulnerable. Split between two governments, crucial maintenance of the destroyed dams simply did not take place, despite repeated warnings from experts. The structures, designed to protect against flash flooding, were damaged during a 1986 storm. More than a decade later, an investigation commissioned by the Libyan government revealed cracks and fissures in the structures. In 2021, a report stated that the dams had not been maintained despite the allocation of more than $2 million in 2012 and 2013. There will now be an investigation to find out where the money went.

For years, the discussion about adapting to a rapidly changing climate was stymied by many who argued that it would reduce pressure to reduce emissions. This attitude has arguably lingered in reporting on some events and threatens to allow governments to get away with not doing enough to protect their citizens.

For example, a prolonged food shortage in Madagascar was roundly portrayed in the media as the world’s first climate-driven famine, following years of drought. However, those stories ignored the core problem: poor governance and greed. Corporate land grabs have seized much of the agricultural land as communities slide further into poverty. In fact, an attribution study found that climate change was not a significant cause of food insecurity in Madagascar at all.

Elsewhere, land management decisions have turned absorbent wetlands into slippery concrete – a factor behind Germany’s 2021 floods – and social structures have made certain groups more vulnerable, such as in India, where caste discrimination prevented some from entering evacuation shelters during cyclones. .

Making these vulnerabilities part of the dialogue is the first step towards effective action. Yet it doesn’t help that financing for adaptation worldwide is still a fraction of the money going to emissions reduction. That’s becoming an increasingly important problem: While deaths from natural disasters have declined overall as disaster management has improved, climate change is making it much more difficult by driving events far beyond previous experience. Some measures may be expensive, but any costs will pale in comparison to doing nothing.

It is difficult to say whether proper maintenance would have completely prevented the dam breach in Libya, despite such an intense event. But it is clear that human activities have amplified both the threat and the weaknesses, so much so that the people of Derna didn’t stand a chance.