Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins: What do we know so far?

Ukrainian forces have proved highly adept at masking their strategic targets with feints, disinformation and moving troops from one area to another, leaving Russian military planners guessing about their next move.

Kiev’s forces have promised to launch their counter-offensive in the summer and are now stepping up attacks, with some success.

Late Monday evening, President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the troops for liberating territory from the Russian occupiers. But so far the gains have been marginal; At least seven villages have been recaptured, according to Ukrainian officials.

As a potentially long and bloody series of battles begins, Ukraine is expected to fight with all its might to regain territory lost in the first months of the invasion. Many of Ukraine’s new weapons are Western and Kiev’s forces are good on the offensive, while Russia appears to be reinforcing defensive positions in some areas.

Here’s what you need to know about the apparent beginning of Ukraine’s advance.

What has happened so far?

Ukraine has launched multiple attacks and gained ground in several places along its vast frontline with Russia.

In the north, Ukrainian troops have moved east towards the country’s border with Russia’s Belgorod region.

Fifteen months after the start of the war, in late May, Russia transferred troops to Belgorod after pro-Ukrainian forces made raids along that stretch of the border, attacking Russian cities and supply hubs.

In eastern Ukraine, around Bakhmut, fighting is raging near the town, now a burnt-out shell.

Russia took Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region last month after both sides lost thousands of soldiers in combat. Ukrainian forces are now penetrating Russian defense positions north and south of the city, with the possible aim of encircling them and trapping Russian units there.

But the main focus so far has been in the south, in Zaporizhia, the scene of heavy fighting. Russian attacks were also recently repelled around the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk, completely destroying some highly trained Russian units.

With Ukraine on the offensive, there is a concerted advance along a broad front, with several villages recaptured in recent days.

The fighting has been bloody.

Ukrainian troops have had to fight their way through vast and well-prepared Russian defense lines and minefields while being fired upon by carefully placed Russian artillery batteries.

Ukraine’s long-range fire has been far more effective than that of its Russian counterparts, but Russian forces have learned hard lessons. Moscow’s drone and counter-drone operations are now much more efficient. They are much faster at deploying their artillery as both sides can now survey the battlefield more accurately, making tactical surprises much more difficult.

This amounts to hard, positional fighting with smaller territorial gains before Ukraine makes a breakthrough it can exploit.

Accurate long-range Ukrainian fire from United States-supplied HIMARS batteries and Storm Shadow cruise missiles sent by the United Kingdom means Russian forces will struggle to keep their frontline troops supplied, a key factor in any offensive.

What effect could the collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam have?

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam on June 6 was a major setback for Ukraine, and the humanitarian and economic toll is painful.

Kherson is now facing an ecological catastrophe, having already suffered the brunt of war and occupation. As they strive to aid and evacuate large numbers of residents, while providing food and shelter, Ukrainian authorities are rapidly expending resources.

Water levels for the upstream reservoir have dropped dramatically, making it increasingly difficult to use water to cool the reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar.

The collapse of the dam also affects Russian territory; the canal that supplies most of Crimea’s fresh water has now been cut off.

Restoring this water supply, initially cut off by Ukraine in 2014 when Moscow annexed the peninsula, was a strategic Russian wartime goal.

The loss of supply will make life much more difficult for Russians in Crimea, as local reservoirs are running low, despite Moscow’s efforts to dig wells and drain water.

Tactically, it is also a setback to any potential Ukrainian attack across the river.

The shape of the downstream part of the Dnipro River has changed significantly, while the currents of the flood waters make possible crossings by Ukrainian troops more difficult, making them less likely in the near future.

Russian troops were reportedly moved east from the far bank of the river to reinforce defensive positions around the Zaporizhzhia front.

Some of Russia’s best-trained airborne and naval infantry units, along with units from the well-equipped 49th Combined Arms Army, have now been removed from the river and sent to close any gaps the Ukrainians might create in the coming days.​

What are Ukraine’s strategic objectives?

Observers are puzzled by the lack of movement so far by Ukrainian units in this counter-offensive.

The gains were small as the Ukrainian troops made their way forward, knowing that the Russian units opposite them had months to prepare.

At the same time, this counter-offensive has been compared to Ukraine’s advance last September, when Kyiv’s forces excelled in hard fighting and strategic deception to recapture large swaths of territory in a matter of days. Russian occupiers were routed before Ukrainian armored columns advanced, during the most kinetic and visible phase of an attack that had been planned for months.

Ukraine crushed Russian troops in last summer’s war of attrition in the northeast, followed by a feint in Kherson, tricking Russia into sending tens of thousands of Russian troops to the region. They were then cleanly cut off from supplies by long-range Ukrainian fire, the Russian troops left stranded and ineffective, while counter-attacks smashed through Russian lines that had been stripped of reinforcements.

Ukraine has always been more tactically agile and controlled the nature of the battles its troops fight, while the Russians have mostly reacted to situations they didn’t choose.

Where the Ukrainian forces will deliver their greatest blows and in what order is unknown, but their talent for strategic thinking shows that this counter-offensive has only just begun. If it does that seriously, it could very well surprise the Russians.