NBA Finals: Nuggets are -400 favorites to beat Heat in best-of-seven series
As they have been throughout the playoffs, the Miami Heat are going into the upcoming NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets as a clear underdog, which should come as no surprise. Recent success aside, the Heat are still an eighth seed against a Western Conference champion with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
But Erik Spoelstra’s Heat will cover more than just the Nuggets when the series opens Thursday in the Rocky Mountains: Denver sits at an elevation of 5,276 feet, which is why it’s known as the Mile High City.
It’s also why home bettors prefer teams from Denver, especially when competing against visitors from sea-level cities like Los Angeles and Miami. As a result, the Nuggets are -400 favorites to win their first NBA title, according to BetGM, giving the Heat about a 25 percent chance of getting upset again.
“Yes, it’s real,” Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James said of the height effect before being swept by the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. “You get tired much faster than if you weren’t in it.”
Jokic, who has been a triple-double machine all postseason, enters the series as a -300 favorite to win MVP, followed by Miami’s Jimmy Butler (+350) and guard Jamal Murray (+1200) out Denver.
Jokic (far right) is chosen as MVP, while Butler (far left) is the top pick among Miami players
The Nuggets play in the Mile High City, making Ball Arena a difficult venue for road teams
A member of the original ABA, Denver has never won an NBA title or even reached the Finals, but has lost just three games in the first three rounds of the postseason.
The Heat reached the Finals by winning Game 7 of the East title series in Boston on Monday night. It came on the day one year after the Celtics won a Game 7 on Miami’s floor a year ago to win the East title.
“Next year we’ll have enough and we’ll be in the same situation again, and we’re going to pull it off,” Butler vowed that night.
The heat made those words prophetic.
The Nuggets tentatively scheduled a flight to Boston for Tuesday afternoon, in case they faced the Celtics – who would have had home court advantage in the title series.
But the Heat had other ideas, winning the deciding game to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to fall after claiming a 3-0 series lead, and Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are now waiting . The Heat are in the finals for the seventh time and are aiming for their fourth championship; the Nuggets are in the Finals for the first time in franchise history.
“When we wake up tomorrow morning, we’ll know who we’re playing against,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said Monday, a few hours before the Celtics and Heat tipped off in Game 7. “We know who we’re preparing for and we can beat turn the page a bit and really focus on that. The Eastern Conference Finals has been a great series.”
The Denver Nuggets pose with the Western Conference Finals Trophy after a victory over LA
Malone will attempt to win an NBA title for the first time, and if Denver is victorious, he will become the 36th coach in league history to win a championship. Miami’s Erik Spoelstra is aiming for his third title as head coach; if he wins it, he would only join Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, Heat President Pat Riley, John Kundla, Gregg Popovich and Steve Kerr as three-time championship coaches.
Denver hasn’t had any real problems in these playoffs yet. The Nuggets are 12-3 in the playoffs, winners of their last six games – and immediately took control of their games against Minnesota in Round 1, Phoenix in Round 2 and the Lakers in the West Finals.
Two-time MVP Jokic averaged a triple-double against both the Suns and Lakers, and goes into this Finals averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. One of his signature moves lately is pointing to his ring finger while looking at his family; he is now four wins away from the jewel he most wants.
“Nikola is still a humble, selfless person and he cares about home, he cares about family, he cares about his horses — the man is just who he is,” Malone said. “That’s why I couldn’t have more respect for him as a man.”
Head Coach Erik Spoelstra of the Miami Heat after winning the Eastern Conference Finals
A week ago, Miami was able to do what Denver did: sweep into the Finals. It’s almost like the Heat forgot they were a 44-38 team that needed two play-in games to get into the playoffs; they ousted No. 1 overall seed Milwaukee in Round 1, passed New York in Round 2, then avenged last season’s loss to Boston in the East Finals by somehow getting to the Celtics’ home ground and winning a Game 7 to avoid the permanent stink of being the first team in NBA history to squander a 3-0 series lead.
“Sometimes you have to suffer for the things you really want,” said Spoelstra. “And this group has shown fortitude. … We have more to do.’
It’s been a hell of a week, that’s for sure. But the Heat got there, just the second No. 8 seed to ever make it to the Finals.
“Everyone gathered around each other,” said heat center Bam Adebayo.
Miami has three players with championships – Udonis Haslem was part of all three Heat titles, Kevin Love won a championship with Cleveland and Kyle Lowry got a ring with Toronto. The Nuggets have one champion on their roster; Denver’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope got one with the Lakers in the 2020 NBA restart against the Heat.
Also back from that Heat finals team: Butler, Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent. The only Denver player besides Caldwell-Pope with Finals experience is Jeff Green, who co-starred with Cleveland in the 2018 title series with Love.
So most players will be looking for their first ring. Haslem is looking to finish his career with a fourth, and Lowry is one of the lucky few to attempt to smear the Larry O’Brien Trophy for a second time.
Canadian player Jamal Murray is one of many Nuggets players in the running for Finals MVP
He remembers how long it took him in 2019, after the Raptors won their title, to think about winning his next title.
“Maybe like the day after,” Lowry said. And any champion, any NBA champion, would tell you this: There’s a high you’ve never felt and you want that high again. And there’s no such thing.’
Denver swept both games against Miami in the regular season. And both sides will inevitably say those games won’t matter much from Thursday.
“The Heat play at an incredibly high level,” said Malone. “Jimmy Butler, what he’s been doing since Round 1 against Milwaukee, continued into Round 2 against New York and now what he’s doing against Boston is just historic in nature. And Erik Spoelstra … of course Spo is one of the best coaches in the league, someone I have a lot of respect for as a coach but also just as a friend.’