As Turkey heads to a presidential election run-off, what’s next?

After a hard-fought first round of elections on Sunday, Turkey will hold a second round on May 28.

Here’s what we can see happening next:

What can we expect from the runoff?

Analysts predict that incumbent candidate Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more likely to win in a runoff as he secured a five percentage point lead in Sunday’s first round of voting against his main contender, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

With more than 99 percent of votes counted, Erdogan had received 49.51 percent of the vote, electoral chief Ahmet Yener said. Kilicdaroglu had achieved 44.89 percent, according to Yener, citing the results of the Supreme Electoral Council.

Overall, Erdogan performed better than expected, with his alliance also managing to secure a majority in the 600-seat parliament.

Political analyst Ali Carkoglu said Erdogan “has the momentum behind him” following those polls.

“Erdogan maintained his support in the heart of Anatolia, although he lost some support in the southeast… He also maintained a credible level of support in major cities,” Carkoglu told Al Jazeera.

“He was also very successful in the earthquake-affected regions. Some people find it surprising, but he has apparently delivered what they expected of him and promises to perform even better in the aftermath of the election,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, there are some opposition members who are disappointed in Kilicdaroglu and see him as the wrong candidate because he was unable to sweep the conservative vote, said Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr.

As for the third-place candidate, Sinan Ogan, he performed better than expected, making him the “kingmaker” as he could play a vital role in the outcome of a runoff if he supports one of the two candidates who face each other in the second round. round.

Ogan has not yet given such approval. Onur Erim, an analyst at Dragoman Strategies, told Al Jazeera he will want ministries or vice presidencies in exchange for approval.

What are the opposition’s challenges?

The opposition alliance will have to do a lot of work to reassure its supporters that it is the alliance that can take down Erdogan given the dismay they have over the results of the first round.

Dozens of opposition officials were shocked by the poor result and are rushing to reconsider the strategy, they told Reuters news agency.

The opposition will have to appeal to populations who question Kilicdaroglu’s alliance with the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which the Turkish government considers a political wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has been fighting against the Turkish state since the 1980s, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths.

But that could be challenging as Erdogan has linked the opposition to the PKK. At a rally for Sunday’s vote, he showed his supporters a fake video of a PKK commander singing an opposition campaign song.

“We have two weeks. We need a quick recovery,” an official told Reuters.

What would Erdogan’s victory mean?

An Erdogan victory would earn him a third term in office, extending his two-decade rule and continuing his position as the longest-serving leader the country has known.

Under him, Turkey would see a continuation of the presidential system adopted in 2018.

To alleviate the rising cost of living, he has pledged to introduce subsidized utility bills and increases in pensions, civil servants’ salaries and the minimum wage. In addition, he will cut interest rates to tackle the country’s economic crisis.

Erdogan also said he will pursue an independent foreign policy that will continue to influence the region and elsewhere in Africa and Central Asia.

Yet his critics say he has stifled dissent in the last decade of his rule, particularly by cracking down on opposition groups.

What would a Kilicdaroglu win mean?

A victory for Kilicdaroglu would symbolize the desire of large parts of the electorate for change and change Erdogan’s reputation as the country’s most electorally successful politician.

The center leader promises a return to a “strong parliamentary system”, a solution to the “Kurdish question”, a return of Syrian refugees home and closer relations with the European Union and the United States under a more muted foreign policy.

While promising further democratization, the opposition has also said it will return to more conventional economic policies in a manifesto under the banner, “I promise you, spring will come again.”

Still, Erdogan’s parliamentary majority will make it difficult for the opposition to pass legislation in the Grand National Assembly.