In earthquake epicentre, Turkey’s Erdogan remains popular
Kahramanmaras, Turkey – “We were all alone. It rained and we waited days for the collapsed building. No one came to help us,” says Fatma, who sits with other women in a soup kitchen set up in a large white tent in the courtyard of an empty building in Turkey’s southern city of Kahramanmaras.
That cry echoes in the earthquake zone, where the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was accused earlier this year of a slow response to the disaster and of lax enforcement of existing building codes. “Where’s the State?” people asked over and over as they camped in front of demolished buildings, waiting for the bodies of their loved ones to be pulled out.
But while buildings collapsed in the center of Kahramanmaras – a historic stronghold of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) – the same cannot be said of support for the incumbent president.
Seven of the province’s eight parliamentary seats are currently held by the ruling party’s coalition with the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
Just three months ago, the city was closest to the epicenter of twin earthquakes that devastated the region on February 6 and claimed at least 51,000 lives in Turkey alone. On Sunday, citizens are called upon to vote in what may be the most sweeping election in the country’s modern history.
‘We can’t pay rent’
Outside the tent, a local NGO distributes free food to those who, like Fatma, have been left homeless by the earthquakes. Her neighborhood in the center of Kahramanmaras suffered the most losses in the city. The area is now dotted with craters and rubble-strewn lots that were home to dozens of tall buildings and where thousands of people lived and worked.
Fatma launches into a tirade about everything that has gone wrong since – at the end she asks to withhold her real name.
“My husband is sick, we can’t stay in a camp, so my friend receives us,” she told Al Jazeera, “but how long can this go on? How long can we be a burden to other people?”
The hairdresser, 50, says her husband is unable to work due to a back injury, while she has lost all her clients since the disaster.
“We can’t afford to rent an apartment. You used to be able to rent for 5,000 Turkish lira [$255]. Now you need at least 7,000-8,000 [$357-$408]she says, referring to a spike in rents due to a surge in demand after the earthquakes, as well as inflation that hit more than 80 percent last year, according to official data.
“I think the government is not distributing aid properly. They have to find out who is in need of help and who is not,” she concludes.
‘Some people are responsible’
In an increasingly polarized political climate, polls and research suggest the earthquake may have little effect on the outcome of upcoming elections. A questionnaire for the Ankara Institute suggests that while 90 percent of government supporters see the government’s response to the earthquake as successful, 90 percent of opposition supporters say it failed.
And while perceptions and ideas may differ across the 11 earthquake-affected regions, in Kahramanmaras’ own ground zero, this seems overwhelmingly true.
“Of course I believe that some people are responsible, who have not followed the building codes,” said Mesut Islamoglu, 43, who recently reopened his optical store in a small shipping container along one of the main streets of the city center, just across the road . from where his shop had stood for 18 years before it collapsed.
“We are people who believe this is a disaster from God,” he says. “We mourn the people we have lost, all the people we know. But we consider ourselves lucky to live in the midst of such a great disaster.”
Business, he says, is slowly picking up as glasses are in high demand and many of the city’s residents have returned in the past two weeks.
Nearby, workers are pushing for more containers to be built to replace an abandoned shopping center across the road. A handful of people sit at tables on the sidewalk of a makeshift cafe that sells the typical firik, a local specialty bread made with sun-dried fermented yogurt and thyme.
“We were told that the government was going to build containers [for us]but I realized it would take a while,” he says, “so why put extra tax on our state?”
‘He’s the only one’
Erdogan’s People’s Alliance bloc faces a six-party coalition known as the Nation Alliance, led by the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The two have been neck and neck in the polls for weeks. Kilicdaroglu is slightly ahead, although many are still predicting that the presidential election will go to a second round on May 28.
The joint opposition ticket includes staunch secularists as well as political Islamists and disgruntled former Erdogan allies. They vow to restore Turkey to a parliamentary democracy and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies based on interest rate cuts – which many economists blame for the country’s skyrocketing inflation and the loss of more than 70 percent of the value of the Turkish currency in the past two years.
“I trust Erdogan. We lost 11 cities to the earthquake. I think he’s the only one who can rebuild them,” concludes Islamoglu.
A muted campaign
Billboards across the city carry posters from both Kilicdaroglu and the opposition and Erdogan’s AK party. One particularly effective image doesn’t seem to appeal to voters, but bears the slogan “solidarity of the century” next to a photo of Erdogan embracing a veiled, crying woman. It claims that the state has mobilized all its resources for earthquake victims.
More than 200,000 buildings were destroyed or severely damaged in the earthquakes, and the estimated cost to Turkey could exceed $100 billion, according to United Nations estimates.
Political campaigns have been muted in the earthquake zone, where there have been no loud demonstrations or campaign buses broadcasting propaganda chants.
“We are holding meetings with the people out of respect for the victims,” said Ali Oztunc, a local politician and deputy leader of the opposition CHP. He estimates that while a million people left the city after the earthquake, more than half have now returned.
While voters are still loyal to Erdogan, he says people have turned their anger on the local government of the AK Party.
“There has been a backlash against the mayor, the municipality, the deputies. In this region, any drop below 70 percent is a failure for Erdogan,” said Oztunc.
As Turkish citizens are called upon to cast two different votes on May 14 — one to elect the president and another for a local MP — he says he hopes some voters in the province will split their votes and favor Erdogan as president. elect, but relinquish their parliamentary seats to the opposition.
Ultimately, the effect of one of the world’s greatest disasters on this important election will not be measured until the morning after the vote.
Fatma, for her part, does not doubt at least one of her votes.
‘I do not think so [the government] failed us. For the presidential election, I will vote for Tayyip,” she explained, referring to the incumbent president by his middle name.
“But for parliament I might vote for someone else, just to give everyone a chance.”