Five years after Trump’s exit, no return to the Iran nuclear deal

Tehran, Iran – Five years ago today, President Donald Trump held up a signed executive order to White House cameras announcing a unilateral withdrawal from a 2015 nuclear deal the United States made with Iran and the world powers.

Despite years of effort, and after many ups and downs, the landmark agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has not been reinstated, contributing to rising tensions in the region.

The Trump administration’s many appointments of Iranian entities and institutions, specifically designed to make it difficult for his successor Joe Biden to undo his damage, have teamed up with a changing political climate to prevent a restored JCPOA.

The then US president had argued that the deal did not do enough to permanently deter Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Trump rejoiced as he reversed one of his predecessor Barack Obama’s major foreign policy achievements.

His administration drafted a dozen conditions for renegotiating a more favorable deal with Tehran to Washington, which would effectively amount to a total political capitulation by Iran.

Unsurprisingly, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei chose a path of “resistance” in the face of Trump, whose corpse he says will “feed worms and rodents” as he expressed his alleged desire to destroy the Islamic Republic. to fall into the grave will take.

The Trump administration’s so-called “maximum pressure” policies, which included the imposition of the toughest sanctions ever against Iran, have since had a significant impact on the Iranian economy. The Biden administration has continued with its predecessor’s policies toward Iran, despite initially denouncing it.

Runaway inflation continues to weigh on the average Iranian and the national currency is in a downward spiral, even as Tehran has gradually increased its oil sales despite sanctions.

However, Iranian leaders have not abandoned their doctrine of defying the US, and according to Washington, attacks by pro-Iran groups against US interests across the region have only increased in recent years.

The US assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in early 2020 raised tensions to new heights, with Tehran and Washington teetering on the brink of war.

Most recently, Iran seized two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman in the past two weeks, according to Western media, in response to a US seizure of another tanker carrying Iranian oil.

Meanwhile, President Ebrahim Raisi last week had the first trip by an Iranian president to Syria in 13 years, with Iranian state media hailing it as a “strategic victory” for Iran in the face of US defeats.

JCPOA in the region

Since its inception, Israel has been the JCPOA’s worst foe, relentlessly lobbying Washington to declare the deal dead.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump for abandoning the deal, and Tel Aviv has repeatedly pressed against efforts by other signatories — namely China, Russia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom — to reinstate the deal through now-stalled talks that started in 2021.

Israel has also warned it will attack Iran to prevent it from getting its hands on a bomb, and Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said last week that the US president is ready to recognize “Israel’s freedom of action” if necessary.

The comment sparked anger in Tehran, prompting security chief Ali Shamkhani to view it as a US admission of responsibility for Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities and nuclear scientists.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, many Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, also cheered Trump as they raised concerns about Tehran’s nuclear program — which it claims is strictly peaceful — and his support for proxies across the region .

But as Tehran also stepped up the pressure and saw the US gradually diminish its role in the region, Arab leaders recognized that change was needed.

The 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities by the Iran-linked Houthis in Yemen, and Washington’s subsequent non-response, appeared to be a turning point for the Arab countries.

After two years of direct talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed in March to restore diplomatic ties in a China-brokered deal, and embassies are expected to reopen this week.

More challenges ahead

In any case, JCPOA stakeholders seem to be content for now with maintaining the status quo while tensions are managed.

The passing of two resolutions introduced by the West last year at the board of directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that denounced Iran — and Tehran’s response — and a deadlock in the talks since September have prompted neither side to declare the JCPOA dead in the absence of a better alternative to the accord.

However, the fate of the deal promises more confrontations between Tehran and the West in the coming months.

The Western parties have reportedly already warned Iran that if it further increases its enrichment of uranium to levels that could potentially be used to produce a bomb, it will prompt them to trigger the deal’s so-called “snapback” mechanism. that will automatically restore the United States. National sanctions against Iran.

Iran and the IAEA reached an agreement in Tehran in March to step up cooperation, which could potentially prevent another resolution at the nuclear watchdog’s upcoming board meeting in June.

Another important deadline comes in October, when the JCPOA will lift some restrictions on Iran’s research, development and production of long-range missiles and drones.

With Israel also pushing for snapback and the West accusing Tehran of selling armed drones to Russia for the war in Ukraine, stakeholders will have a lot of work to do in managing tensions in the coming months.