Purported US intelligence leaks embarrass Ukraine, other allies

A series of leaked reports purporting to be classified US intelligence documents related to the war in Ukraine have sparked skepticism and denials from US intelligence agencies and several of the United States’ allies.

Photos of the secret files began circulating widely on Russian social media channels last week, but some were published on gamers’ website Discord in February and March.

The CIA, NSA and US Defense Intelligence Agency have denied the authenticity of the reports and have launched an investigation into the source of the leak.

The reports have also embarrassed two US-Middle East allies: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Egypt denied one Washington Post report cites a leaked Feb. 17 document saying it reached a secret agreement to supply Russia with 40,000 rockets, gunpowder and artillery shells.

“In the document, Sisi instructs officials to keep the production and shipment of the missiles secret ‘to avoid problems with the West,’” the Washington Post reported, referring to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

A senior official told Al Qahera News that the report was “tampering with information that has no basis in truth”.

Another leaked document focuses on the United Arab Emirates, stating that Abu Dhabi has agreed to leak intelligence from the US and UK to curry favor with Russia.

“The UAE is likely to view engagement with Russian intelligence as an opportunity to strengthen growing Abu Dhabi-Moscow ties and diversify intelligence partnerships amid concerns over the US withdrawal from the region,” the document read. VAE is quoted. Associated Press said news agency.

The UAE said suggestions it had deepened ties with Russian intelligence were “definitely false”.

Can Ukraine win?

More worryingly for the Western alliance backing Ukraine, some of the leaked documents suggest Kiev is not ready for a landslide victory in its expected spring counter-offensive, and its air defenses are fragile.

An alleged American intelligence officer research from early February warned of “deficiencies in force generation and maintenance” and the likelihood of only “modest territorial gains”.

Ukraine formed several new so-called storm brigades ahead of the counter-offensive and promoted the formation of a seventh National Guard brigade, which would be the ninth “Offensive Guard” in the armed forces. A brigade typically consists of about 4,000 troops, suggesting that Ukraine had 32,000 offensive troops in reserve and was trying to bring that number closer to 40,000 prior to the counter-offensive.

“Currently, we see a high demand and desire to join,” said Ukraine’s Deputy Interior Minister Kateryna Pavlichenko.

After a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted on April 11: “@SecBlinken reaffirmed the ironclad support of the US and strongly rejected all attempts to cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to win on the battlefield.”

a New York Times The report cited a leaked document predicting that ammunition for Ukraine’s Soviet-era air defense systems would soon run out, leaving the interior of the country exposed to air strikes.

“The supply of missiles for Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s protection against most fighters and some bombers, would be completely exhausted by May 3 and mid-April,” the paper said. said.

Ukraine says it is currently capable of shooting down 75 percent of missiles sent by Russia and is trying to convince its allies to F-16s to strengthen air defenses.

One of the documents claimed that Ukraine suffered between 124,000 and 131,000 Dead and woundedfive times higher than the official death toll.

The spokesman of the military intelligence service of Ukraine, Andriy Yusov said those reports were false or inaccurate. “We see false numbers of losses from both sides. Some of the information is clearly from open sources,” he said in a telethon.

Russia ‘exhausted’ in Bakhmut

The bloodiest battles of the war were still raging in the eastern city of Bakhmut, with Russia launching dozens of ground attacks there every day.

The commander of the Ukrainian ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi said Bakhmut’s defenders had “exhausted the Wagnerites”, referring to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, “thus the enemy is now forced to involve special forces and airborne units in the fighting for Bakhmut”.

He said Russian forces had “switched to the so-called ‘Syrian’ scorched earth tactic”, destroying buildings and positions with airstrikes and artillery fire.

from Ukraine general staff said Russian troops had suffered heavy casualties in the Bakhmut area of ​​Donetsk.

Ukraine also suffered significant losses in Bakhmut, justifying its decision to defend the city as strategic.

“If we had not defended Bakhmut all this time, the enemy would have penetrated deep into the territory of Ukraine, so the importance of defending the city should be understood in this context,” said Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna. Malyar.

While Ukrainian officials admitted that Russian troops had a significant artillery advantage in the city, they also reportedly ran out of ammunition or were conserving.

“The pace of Russian attacks has slowed down somewhat,” noted Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, head of the Joint Press Center of the Armed Forces of the Tavria Region.

“In the past week, the enemy has shelled our positions in the Zaporizhia and Donetsk directions 1844 times. Compared to February, that is a third less.”

Russian forces have attempted to surround and suffocate Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut. Serious Cherevatyia spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces in the east said the destruction of a bridge to the village of Khromove, 2 kilometers (1.2 mi) west of Bakhmut, caused a problem in the supply lines that the Ukrainian armed forces were trying to overcome.

from Ukraine general staff said Russian troops in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia were evacuating people in anticipation of Ukraine’s spring counter-offensive.

“Russian occupiers have made preparations for the evacuation of local people to the temporarily occupied areas of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” the general staff said. “In Melitopol and Skadovsk in particular, the enemy organized a survey of the local population for possible evacuation.”

Al Jazeera previously reported on satellite photos showing Russian troops in Crimea digging underground and preparing elaborate defenses.