Will heat pumps end up as a minority sport for the well-to-do? 

When the government announced details of a new plan in late 2021, designed to turn our homes into oases of greenery, it didn’t stop at how transformative it would be – mega-transformative.

Boris Johnson, number 10 in situ at the time, was positively enthusiastic.

“As we clean up the way we heat our homes in the next decade,” he said, “we support our brilliant innovators to buy and use clean technology like heat pumps as cheaply as gas boilers, supporting thousands of green jobs.” ‘

Kwasi Kwarteng, the then Minister of Trade and Energy, was not far behind in enthusiasm.

“As technology improves and costs plummet over the next decade,” he quivered, “we expect low-carbon heating systems to become the obvious, affordable choice for consumers.”

But as is often the case with government initiatives designed by out of touch officials (no doubt working from home), the £450m Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) has so far flattered to deceive.

It has indeed been a monumental moist squib. So far, consumer adoption has been modest (a friendly description).

Of the £150 million in grants (issued in the form of vouchers) available in the current tax year, less than £50 million has been used by homeowners.

A further £150 million in grants will be available coming the new tax year in April, but any funds not used in the current tax year will be lost forever. It will just flow back to the treasury.

Barring a modern miracle, the scheme will be more ‘low-grade’ than ‘upgrade’. It is modest in scope (according to the climate activists) — and even more modest in terms of acceptance.

At first glance, the BUS looks attractive. Homeowners get a grant of £5,000 if they replace their gas boiler with an environmentally friendly air source heat pump – £6,000 if a ground source heat pump is preferred.

Still, air source pumps are ugly (they sit on an outside wall and look like an air conditioner). They are also loud as hell.

Soil well pumps require several meters of underground piping to be laid under gardens. But by needing less power to heat your home and by relying on electricity rather than gas, both tick three big boxes.

First, they can help you reduce your energy consumption (note: not the same as lowering your bills). Second, they are much more environmentally friendly because they do not rely on natural gas (like coal and oil, a fossil fuel).

And finally, they are good for the country because they keep us from importing tankerloads of gas from all over the world – from good places like Norway and less good places like Qatar and Russia.

But the BUS is more likely to fail than succeed – for many reasons.

For starters, the financial numbers for most households just don’t add up, especially given the precarious economic situation (rising prices, high interest rates and greater job insecurity).

While a grant of £5,000 or £6,000 seems generous, the pumps don’t come cheap, even though they aren’t subject to VAT. Install an air source pump and you’re looking at the total cost (purchase plus fitting) which is between £7,000 and £13,000.

Opt for a ground well pump and the cost rises – to between £15,000 and £30,000.

Ditch the respective £5,000 and £6,000 vouchers and you’re still looking at big expenses – costs that many homeowners just can’t afford. Most low-income households wouldn’t think about it in a month of Sunday.

For the record, the purchase and installation of a new gas boiler (approved until 2035) will be cheaper.

For many households, the prize over the environment will win every time. Indeed, I know many people in their sixties who will wait until almost 2035 – and then buy a cheaper gas boiler.

That installation, they say, will comfortably see them through to the end of their lives.

There may also be additional costs to ensure that the heat pumps work properly, for example larger radiators, double glazing and insulation of walls and attic.

Then there are millions of homes, most terrace homes for example, that simply couldn’t accommodate a heat pump, even if the homeowners are ardent eco-warriors.

The government’s marketing of the plan, overseen by the useless Ofgem, was also uninspiring.

Although a campaign has been launched, it has not reached my radar. It pales into insignificance in comparison to the millions of pounds thrown into promoting smart meters.

I’m not the only one who thinks. Baroness Parminter, a lifemate of the Liberal Democrats, chairs the House of Lords Committee on the Environment and Climate Change. She describes the BUS as ‘downright disappointing’.

Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay is more blunt. He believes that taxpayers should not subsidize heat pumps.

Even if heat pump adoption were higher, there is a shortage of engineers with the skills to install them. The government advises households to use an installer who is affiliated with the microgeneration certification scheme.

These, in turn, must be registered with the Renewable Energy Consumer Code or the Home Insulation and Energy Systems Quality Assured Contractors Scheme (HIES).

A few days ago a search on the mcs Certified standards group website showed that there are 593 companies that are going to install an air source heat pump in the UK and 242 companies would like to install a ground source heat pump.

Fine, given the current rise, but hardly an army large enough to ramp up heat pump installations (the government wants to install 600,000 heat pumps every year by 2028… dream on).

Of course things can change. The government can get its act together and start promoting the BUS, although I imagine it has far more important things to deal with as we race towards elections.

Companies such as British Gas (boo!) and Octopus Energy are also introducing cheaper heat pumps that will change the financial attractiveness of the BUS.

Still, I suspect that heat pumps will remain a minority sport for the foreseeable future, bought only by the well-to-do. What most homeowners want now more than anything else is lower energy bills. Decarbonising the country’s electricity system by 2035 is of secondary importance.

• Are you going to install a heat pump – or are they too expensive? Please email jeff.prestridge@dailymail.co.uk