2024 will see massive growth in generative AI – but also more regulation
Generative AI exploded onto the scene a year ago with the massive popularity of OpenAI's ChatGPT, which uses large language models. Most AI experts believe the technology has endless applications in healthcare and beyond Leading healthcare systems are already putting this to work.
Dr. Justin Norden, partner at GSR Ventures, believes 2024 will have echoes of 2023 in generative AI: more growth, more use cases, more early adopters. But he also sees some guardrails emerging.
We interviewed him to get his thoughts on the year ahead in genAI usage, regulation, vendor consolidation and more.
Q. In 2024, you'll see continued massive growth of generative AI in healthcare. Discuss why you think this will continue to be the case.
A. While 2023 was filled with hype and discussion around generative AI, few healthcare systems had developed definitive strategies for the emerging technology, and even fewer implemented applications beyond isolated pilot projects with highly targeted use cases.
Most healthcare systems, as is common with healthcare technology adoption, are playing a wait-and-see approach before taking the first step. For example, healthcare systems will likely monitor the actions of their peers and those of the industry's largest vendors until they feel safe enough to dive in.
However, the few early adopters of providers will see clear benefits from their implementation of generative AI applications. First, early ROI will be felt in areas such as environmental documentation, data solutions, revenue cycle management, and other administrative tasks that are predominantly lower risk.
Although slower than some other industries, healthcare's interest in generative AI is astonishing considering it has been less than a year since OpenAI launched ChatGPT. The pace of innovation within and beyond healthcare has also been astonishing over the past year, and I expect this to continue into 2024.
Healthcare systems that think about the right infrastructure and use cases will see the benefits grow and accelerate in the coming year as technology advances.
Q. You say there will be regulation for all types of AI within a broader set of algorithms. Describe what you think is on the way.
A. A speed bump to the adoption of generative AI in healthcare is a lack of regulation or standardization designed to protect both patient safety and provider liability risk. President Biden's October executive order to regulate AI is an obvious sign that some sort of federal guidance and/or legislation will come in 2024.
However, regulation of AI was inevitable given the power and speed of its development. To put it another way, it's the Wild West for AI in healthcare right now with thousands of point solutions available, most of which are severely limited to no real-world testing and few guardrails around them. This exciting but risky phase is coming to an end.
Specifically, I expect that by 2024 we will see extensive regulation around the use of AI for both clinical and non-clinical healthcare tasks. AI systems will need to be tested for bias, accuracy and safety, both before deployment and on an ongoing basis.
Given the ongoing regulatory uncertainty, healthcare systems will need to rethink how they comply – and even anticipate final government rulings before they are issued. That means provider organizations may essentially have to regulate their own AI algorithms and related vendors.
Q. And beyond AI, you're suggesting that healthcare systems will look to consolidate technology providers due to financial pressures. What do you think this will look like?
A. Healthcare IT budgets have skyrocketed in recent years, largely due to the ripping and replacing of EHR systems and the implementation of telehealth and remote patient monitoring systems during COVID-19. Not only do these new systems require more vendors and more costs, healthcare systems have also had to hire more highly paid IT staff and consultants to manage and reduce technology and workflow complexity.
This exponential trend of IT budget growth cannot continue.
The financial pressures that hospitals have felt the most since 2020 will continue into 2024, forcing organizations to consolidate their healthcare IT vendors – starting with systems that have not demonstrated a definitive ROI or do not provide critical infrastructure. So-called “nice-to-have” and other convenience solutions will be removed and pressure will be put on core platform providers to deliver more value.
In this climate, selling new IT to hospitals will be even more challenging, but suppliers can compete by demonstrating a clear and referenceable ROI.
For example, end-to-end systems vendors can show potential customers how by implementing their solution, hospitals can eliminate disparate, disconnected applications that frustrate providers and add complexity to IT infrastructure. A seamless, integrated system that is proven to reduce physician burden and IT overhead can be a compelling business development strategy.
Follow Bill's HIT coverage on LinkedIn: Bill Siwicki
Email him: bsiwicki@himss.org
Healthcare IT News is a HIMSS Media publication.