2024 Presidential Election Model Predicts Who’s On Track to Win Electoral College
The Daily Mail today releases its 2024 election model, giving us the most in-depth insight yet into who we think will win the battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
With two months to go until the decision, the report predicts we are heading for a political cliffhanger, as the final outcome in Pennsylvania hinges on just 20,500 votes.
And it is Trump, the former president, who is on track to victory, with victories in the crucial states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the most important of all.
Harris is predicted to win the states of Wisconsin and Michigan, giving Trump a 287-251 Electoral College margin.
But even that narrow result is a close call. The model crunches data from the past 80 years, including election results, polls and economic statistics, and concludes that Trump’s chance of winning is only 50.5 percent.
And the model’s algorithm can even count the votes it needs. In Pennsylvania, Trump could lose his 19 crucial Electoral College votes if just 20,500 people switch him to Harris.
Overall, Trump’s chances have declined since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race to be succeeded by Harris.
The model, run by polling firm JL Partners, gave Trump an easy victory, giving him an 87 percent chance of winning on the day in July before Biden announced he was ending his re-election campaign.
However, not everything went as Harris wanted.
At times, her chances of winning were greater than Trump’s in August, but they fell again last week.
Still, given the complexity of the electoral college system, the model still gives her a 66 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said: ‘This is the closest election in the US in 24 years and it will likely come down to a few thousand votes in the state of Pennsylvania.
But in this first update of our model, which uniquely checks who is on the ballot in each state, it is Trump who dominates.
‘Harris has lost steam since the DNC and her CNN interview, losing enough votes, albeit a small number, to left-wing candidates to help carry Trump in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania and Nevada.’
Johnson said Harris is rebuilding half of the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” in Michigan and Wisconsin, but that won’t be enough to win.
“The most remarkable thing is how far ahead Trump was before Biden withdrew,” he added.
According to our model, the chance was almost 90 percent. Now it is only 50 percent.
“This race is going to be close, but Trump has the biggest lead right now.”
The model will be updated regularly from now until Election Day, so DailyMail.com readers have a front-row seat to every twist and turn in the race.
In addition, it includes special factors that Johnson says make the version more accurate than comparable versions elsewhere.
The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will remain exciting until the very end
Particular attention is being paid to the other names on the ballot in each state, such as Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independents Cornell West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who remains on many ballots despite suspending his candidacy and endorsing Trump.
The model projects that Stein and West will help Trump in Pennsylvania, for example, where they are expected to win support from left-leaning voters who might otherwise support Harris.
Kennedy, on the other hand, has tried to limit the damage he did to Trump since withdrawing by recusing himself from ballots in states where he could.
Harris has enjoyed a honeymoon period since becoming the Democratic nominee, turning a two-point deficit to Biden, opening a two- to three-point lead in national polls and seeing donations from supporters pour in.
Trump has downplayed her win, telling DailyMail.com last week that he was pleased with the way his campaign was going after getting Kennedy’s backing.